The gambling information that carries the most interest as Opening Day approaches for a Major League Baseball season is the over-under for the win totals of all teams.
MLB teams falling short of preseason expectations
Teams such as the Cardinals and Padres have failed to meet the win totals projected before Opening Day, while those with low projections are leading divisions.
August 2, 2023 at 1:25AM
The Twins reached the two-thirds mark (108 games) of the season Tuesday night in St. Louis. According to win-loss projections from late March, there was a very disappointing team playing in this game, and it was not the visitors.
The Twins were projected at 84.5 wins. They aren't going to get there, but stumbling to say, 80-82 remains a possibility — and thus winning the putrid American League Central Division.
The Cardinals, without a losing season since 2007, had an 88.5 win total for betting purposes. The rest of the numbers for the NL Central: Milwaukee 85.5, Chicago Cubs 77.5, Pittsburgh 67.5 and Cincinnati 65.5.
St. Louis had a 47-60 record, 13th in the National League, entering this three-game series with the floundering Twins.
"I was making my predictions before Opening Day and said, 'I got this division; it has to be the Cardinals,'" ESPN's Tim Kurkjian said Tuesday. "Milwaukee looked like the one challenger, with its pitching … and those other teams were just trying to put it together.
"Four months later, four teams have taken turns being the best in the NL Central, and the one team that's stayed hopelessly out of it has been the Cardinals.
"I was looking at it this morning, and there's no equivalent season for teams that were supposed to be really good not being close to that, and teams that were supposed to be bad being good.''
Start with the Cincinnati Reds. Projected: 65.5 wins, tied with the Rockies for 27th, ahead of the A's and the Nationals (both at 59.5). On Aug. 1, the Reds were 59-49 and leading the division.
"I love watching the Reds, with those young guys just going after it,'' said Bernie Miklasz, a longtime sportswriter and radio host in St. Louis. "And as a kid from Maryland, I'm really enthused about these Orioles.''
Then there are the Cardinals, the hometown team. If any fandom in American sports deserves the grandest addendum, it's this one: Redbird Nation.
"I became a Cardinals fan in the 1950s, listening to them as a kid on KMOX with Harry Caray, in southwest Minnesota," I said.
Miklasz topped that. "I listened to the Cardinals on KMOX as a kid in Maryland, with the great Jack Buck,'' he said.
So how are the Cardinals loyalists who buy all those tickets taking this? No-shows?
"Maybe a few more than in the past, and more leaving earlier, but they are still averaging 40,000-plus,'' Miklasz said. "They'll be back at 3.3 million tickets sold and probably second to the Dodgers. Plus, their TV ratings are still phenomenal.
"It's really strange, though. I'm so used to being on the radio, talking about a team in the hunt. What I've been saying is, 'It finally caught up to them.'
"The Cardinals have been gradually slipping. They did bring in two great players in [Paul] Goldschmidt and [Nolan] Arenado in recent years, but they continued to ignore starting pitching.
"... They seemed to forget Cardinals success always has started with good pitching. They didn't have it from the start this season, and without internal solutions in the minors.
"Finally, this Sunday, they started trading veteran pitchers for prospects, which was the right move.''
Surprisingly though, the Cardinals aren't baseball's Flop Kings in the summer of '23.
"The Padres were the sexiest team in baseball coming into the season, and, somehow, they're still under .500,'' Kurkjian said. "And the Mets spent more than anybody, trying to build a powerhouse, and now they're trying to trade their way out of it.
"The Padres probably should trade Josh Hader and Blake Snell because they're free agents, but how can you give up after creating those expectations?
"Cardinals, Padres, Mets — and maybe the Yankees, … there's a good chance all will be out of the playoffs. And the Orioles, Reds, Diamondbacks and even the Marlins could be in.''
MLB unpredictability. Good for America, if not storied franchises.
"Here's a stat for you,'' Miklasz said. "John Mozeliak, the baseball boss, is in his 16th year here. During his first eight, the Cardinals won 34 postseason games.
"And in his last eight years, counting this one, it will be only four postseason wins.''
Four Cardinals postseason wins in the last eight years? That's awful, Bernie. Minnesota baseball fans send their sympathy.
Shohei Ohtani keeps setting records, even after the season is over.
