Souhan: Twins lacked Cruz control, so signing a hitter like Nelson is an offseason priority

Should the Pohlads sell the Twins?

Yes.

Also, I should be given a free cherry-red Maserati convertible that will move so fast that my flowing locks will trail behind me like a jet’s contrails.

I’ll also need someone to throw in some flowing locks to make that work.

The Twins’ collapse this season was pathetic. That doesn’t mean we have to spend the autumn and winter asking for that which is not realistic.

The Pohlads are highly unlikely to sell the team. If they did sell, odds are the new owners would look at the financial landscape of modern baseball and decreasing local media revenues and do what Carl Pohlad did in the late 1990s — slash payroll and accept losing.

I agree with the populist sentiment that the Pohlads should not have cut payroll in 2024 coming off their first playoff series victory since 2002. I also know that spending more would not have guaranteed a better result this season.

I wrote last winter that the Twins should sign pitcher Jordan Montgomery. He wound up signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks for two years and $47.5 million. Had the Twins signed him, the franchise would have been praised for “being aggressive” and “really wanting to win.”

But they wouldn’t have won.

Montgomery had a 6.23 ERA and Arizona missed the playoffs by one game. The Diamondbacks’ owner, Ken Kendrick, has already taken the blame for signing Montgomery.

Twins rookie Simeon Woods Richardson outperformed Montgomery, so the Twins actually would have been a much worse team had they signed him.

Anyway, in recent years there has been no obvious correlation between payroll size and performance.

Here’s where the Twins ranked in payroll, and how they finished, since hiring Derek Falvey as their baseball boss: 2017: 22nd, wild card berth. 2018: 18th, missed playoffs. 2019: 18th, won 101 games and division. 2020: 20th, won division. 2021: 16th, missed playoffs. 2022: 20th, missed playoffs. 2023: 17th, won division and playoff series. 2024: 18th, missed playoffs.

Factor in that the Yankees and Dodgers have outspent their competition for decades, and the Yankees have won one World Series since 2000, and the Dodgers have won one World Series since 1988, and the money argument becomes highly questionable.

Does that mean the Twins should stand pat this offseason?

No. It means they should look at what has worked best for them under Falvey: Having a durable, veteran, relatively affordable, middle-of-the-order, professional hitter.

After missing the playoffs in 2018, the Twins signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $14 million deal, then picked up his option for $4.4 million in 2020, and traded him in 2021 for Joe Ryan.

In 2019 and ’20 with Cruz, the Twins’ winning percentage was .617. In the Twins’ other seasons under Falvey, their winning percentage is .496.

Their only division title under Falvey without Cruz came last year, when Royce Lewis temporarily assumed the role of clutch hitter.

Someone like Cruz becomes a de facto hitting coach, because every day he is taking at-bats that teach younger players how to take at-bats.

If the 2024 Twins had someone like Cruz in the middle of their lineup, they would have not collapsed offensively, and might still be playing.

Instead, they were left with a collection of injury-prone and not-ready-for-prime-time hitters collapsing under the pressure of taking important at-bats.

If you want to dream about the Pohlads spending copious money, dream about them signing a superstar hitter.

You can make the case that if the Twins outbid all of the big-market teams for Juan Soto, they would be set up to win for years. But that’s not going to happen.

So Falvey’s primary task this offseason will be determining which available hitter could best mimic Cruz.

Maybe that player is Paul Goldschmidt, who won an NL MVP award in 2022 but has declined dramatically the past two seasons with the Cardinals. Maybe he’s capable of rebounding, and filling the Twins’ most desperate need: Professional hitting.