New Mexico State at Gophers, 8 p.m. Thursday, Huntington Bank Stadium, BTN, 100.3-FM
New Mexico State vs. Gophers: Randy Johnson's game prediction
The Gophers are heavy favorites, and even with Jerry Kill returning to coach the competition, this is a relatively easy call.
September 1, 2022 at 5:20AM
The Gophers begin their sixth season under coach P.J. Fleck with an opener that normally wouldn't carry much intrigue. That, however, changed when New Mexico State hired coach Jerry Kill, who guided the Gophers from 2011-15 and reiterated comments about his dislike for Fleck, his former assistant at Northern Illinois.
Three big story lines
Will Fleck and Kill shake hands?
Given that the Aggies are 36½-point underdogs, the Kill vs. Fleck kerfuffle might be the most interesting subplot on Thursday. Fleck says he's never not shaken an opposing coach's hand, though there have been fly-bys. Kill softened his comments on Fleck and Minnesota after the Aggies opener, so stay tuned.
What will the Gophers passing game look like?
With sixth-year senior QB Tanner Morgan reunited with offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, the Gophers are certain to open things up this season and pass more than the 19.8 times per game they did last year. Don't, however, expect Mike Leach's Air Raid on Thursday. They'll likely keep the fun stuff to use later.
How will Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts look?
The Gophers' top two running backs are coming off season-ending injuries and have looked like their old selves in the limited glimpses from training camp. Neither should need to be a 30-carry back on Thursday, though Fleck and his staff will want to see what they can do with extended action.
Two key matchups
Gophers defensive line vs. New Mexico State offensive line
With ends Boye Mafe and Esezi Otomewo and tackles Micah Dew-Treadway and Nyles Pinckney graduated, the Gophers must fill holes. Coordinator Joe Rossi is confident in a rotation of eight to 10 players, but the proof will come against an offensive line that helped the Aggies gain 303 yards in their opener, a 23-12 loss against Nevada.
Gophers receivers vs. New Mexico State secondary
Nevada kept things vanilla against the Aggies by passing only 23 times vs. 45 rushes, but NMSU's secondary helped limit its opponent to 3.4 yards per pass attempt. Gophers wideouts Chris Autman-Bell, Dylan Wright and Mike Brown-Stephens will provide a much stiffer test.
One stat that matters
159 Career games played by the Gophers' "Encore Four'' of sixth-year seniors Morgan, Ibrahim, Autman-Bell and center John Michael Schmitz. Each has been a starter for at least three seasons.
The Gophers will win if … they excel at the basics and don't give the Aggies hope in the form of multiple turnovers. Upset losses to Bowling Green and Illinois last year hinged on a combined four interceptions and 10 sacks by the visitors. The fact that the Aggies had four turnovers and still only lost by 11 points to Nevada showed that Kill had his team playing hard.
The Aggies will win if … they get those turnovers, shorten the game with ball control and the Gophers don't take them seriously. Quarterback is a bit of a mystery with mobile junior Diego Pavia, who threw three interceptions before being pulled in the opener, and true freshman Gavin Frakes, who completed nine of his 13 passes.
Prediction
There's a reason for the big point spread. The Gophers are a veteran team that's expected to contend for the Big Ten West title, and they're facing an opponent that was 2-10 last year, is operating under a new coaching staff and is playing for the second time in six days.
The Gophers will want to see what the passing game looks like under Act II of Ciarrocca's tenure as offensive coordinator and if Wright can be a consistent complement to Autman-Bell. They'll also test the new offensive line and see how Ibrahim and Potts deal with live contact.
Where things could get interesting is if the Gophers take a sizable lead and have a chance to run up the score. Fleck has taken the high road this summer while Kill brought up old grievances when given the opportunity. The Gophers coach, however, has shown he can make a point, too, as he did after last year's win over Nebraska, calling it a triumph of culture over skill, presumably a shot at Huskers coach Scott Frost for previous comments.
My expectation: Fleck will keep it businesslike. The Aggies might cover that spread, but the Gophers will win.
Gophers 38, Aggies 10
A constant on a team beset by change, Dawson Garcia scored 30 points, going six shots into the season before he even missed.
