The Legislature enacted or changed many Minnesota laws in the past two years, largely due to one fact: Democrats controlled state government — the House, Senate and governor’s office.

Heading into this fall’s election, Republicans and their allies hope to change that. The entire Minnesota House is on the ballot in November, and if the GOP wins control they can put the brakes on the DFL legislative agenda for the next two years. The Senate isn’t on the ballot until 2026, but DFL state Sen. Kelly Morrison’s retirement to run for the congressional seat vacated by Rep. Dean Phillips gives Republicans an opportunity to win control of the chamber, which is currently tied 33-33.

Of the 134 seats in the Minnesota House of Representatives, 63 are held by Republicans and 68 by DFLers after several post-session resignations. While either party can win any seat, only a handful are seen by the two parties and associated groups as ripe for changing hands — and where both sides will focus campaign efforts. Republicans need a net gain of four seats to control the House.

The Minnesota Star Tribune talked to party operatives and analyzed past election data to identify the 15 races most likely to be targeted in the House campaigns.

3B: Natalie Zeleznikar (R) vs. Mark Munger (DFL)

The northeastern Minnesota House district includes cities and townships such as Hermantown that hug the city of Duluth.

Republican Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar lives in Fredenberg Township and was a licensed nursing home administrator for 30 years. She now works in human resources. Her DFL challenger, Mark Munger, is a former judge and Proctor city attorney who also lives in Fredenberg Township.

Zeleznikar managed to topple longtime DFL Rep. Mary Murphy by just 33 votes in 2022, despite the district swinging for Democrat Joe Biden in the presidential race. Democrats are hopeful a new candidate with deep connections in the district will bring it back in the blue column.

7B: Cal Warwas (R) vs. Lorrie Janatopoulos (DFL)

This Iron Range district is home to mining towns such as Virginia, Eveleth and Aurora and stretches south to near the border of the Fond Du Lac reservation.

Cal Warwas, a third-generation miner and local union member, is running as a Republican. He lives in Clinton Township. Eveleth resident Lorrie Janatopoulos is a former Department of Employment and Economic Development employee running as a Democrat.

Democrats have managed to hang on to the seat with moderate, well-known incumbents like Rep. Dave Lislegard. But the district, which Republican Donald Trump easily won in 2020, has been trending Republican for years. Lislegard retired unexpectedly in May.

14A: Bernie Perryman (R) vs. Abdi Daisane (DFL)

This district covers part of St. Cloud and also includes the cities of Waite Park, St. Augusta and St. Joseph.

Republican Rep. Bernie Perryman owns two Batteries Plus stores and is serving her first term in the Legislature. She lives in St. Augusta. DFLer Abdi Daisane is a small-business owner and first-time legislative candidate who lives in St. Cloud.

Perryman managed to win the seat in 2022 by fewer than 200 votes. The district narrowly went for Biden in 2020, giving Democrats hope they can flip it this fall.

14B: Dan Wolgamott (DFL) vs. Sue Ek (R)

The district contains most of St. Cloud, a regional center home to the St. Cloud State University campus.

DFL Rep. Dan Wolgamott has represented the area since 2018 and coaches football at Sauk Rapids-Rice High School. His GOP opponent, Sue Ek, is a communications professional and consultant and member of the Transportation Infrastructure Advisory Board in St. Cloud.

Republicans are again targeting the St. Cloud House seat after Wolgamott was arrested for drunken driving last summer. But Democrats say Ek’s opposition to abortion and LGBTQ rights is too extreme for the district.

18A: Jeff Brand (DFL) vs. Erica Schwartz (R)

North Mankato and St. Peter are the biggest cities in this district more than an hour south of the Twin Cities, also home to Gustavus Adolphus College.

Rep. Jeff Brand is a Democrat from St. Peter who has served two nonconsecutive terms and owns a landscaping business. Republican Erica Schwartz, who survived a brain tumor, works at her husband’s family business, the convenience store Nicollet Mart.

This seat has swung back and forth between the parties for the past two election cycles. Brand narrowly won the seat back in a 2022 rematch after being knocked off in 2020. Both sides expect another close race.

26A: Sarah Kruger (DFL) vs. Aaron Repinski (R)

The college town of Winona is the largest city in this House district on the Minnesota-Wisconsin border.

Sarah Kruger is the chief of staff at FairVote Minnesota, a nonprofit that promotes ranked-choice voting. She prevailed in a DFL primary. Aaron Repinski, a Winona City Council member and business owner, won a GOP primary to run on the November ballot. Both candidates live in Winona.

Republicans were already targeting the district when longtime DFL Rep. Gene Pelowski announced his retirement, leaving the seat open. They see the area as trending conservative and a prime target this fall.

32B: Matt Norris (DFL) vs. Alex Moe (R)

The northern suburban city of Blaine makes up most of this House swing district.

DFL Rep. Matt Norris is an attorney from Blaine who has long been active in the community. Republican Alex Moe works for the Anoka County courts and is getting his law degree at Mitchell Hamline School of Law.

In 2022, Norris managed to beat an incumbent Republican in a close race after the boundaries were redrawn, but Republicans are hopeful they can swing it back with attacks on Democrats’ agenda at the State Capitol.

35A: Zack Stephenson (DFL) vs. Josh Jungling (R)

This district covers the city of Anoka and most of Coon Rapids in the northern Twin Cities suburbs.

Attorney Zack Stephenson, first elected in 2018, has sponsored high-profile bills at the Capitol to legalize cannabis and sports betting. His GOP opponent, Josh Jungling, is a small-business owner and charitable gambling manager for Anoka Ramsey Athletic Association.

Stephenson managed to comfortably defend his House seat two years ago, but other statewide races in the district were closer, giving Republicans hope they can beat the powerful incumbent this fall.

35B: Kari Rehrauer (DFL) vs. Steve Pape (R)

This Anoka County district covers eastern Coon Rapids and parts of Andover.

DFLer Kari Rehrauer is a science teacher now working for the teachers union and a Coon Rapids City Council member since 2020. She’ll take on Republican Steve Pape, a Navy veteran and engineer who has designed systems for the Department of Defense.

DFL Rep. Jerry Newton is retiring after four nonconsecutive terms in the House, leaving an opening in a district that narrowly voted for Republicans in statewide races in 2022.

36A: Elliot Engen (R) vs. Janelle Calhoun (DFL)

This east metro district straddles the border between Anoka and Ramsey counties, and includes Lino Lakes.

Rep. Elliot Engen, the first Gen Z Republican elected to the Legislature, is running for a second term against DFLer Janelle Calhoun, a political newcomer and former executive director of a cancer research nonprofit. Both candidates live in Lino Lakes.

Engen won his seat by under 650 votes out of more than 22,000 cast. Biden also narrowly carried the district four years ago, giving Democrats hope that Trump might be a drag on Republicans in the area.

41A: Lucia Wroblewski (DFL) vs. Wayne Johnson (R)

This Washington County House district includes Lake Elmo and Afton.

DFLer Lucia Wroblewski is a former St. Paul police officer and Afton City Council member running against former Cottage Grove City Council Member Wayne Johnson, who owns two HVAC businesses.

Trump lost the district in 2020 and the DFL sees an opportunity. GOP Rep. Mark Wiens won the seat by only 128 votes in 2022 and is retiring after one term.

41B: Tom Dippel (R) vs. Jen Fox (DFL)

Hastings and Cottage Grove are the main cities in this southeastern suburban district.

Republican Tom Dippel, a dentist who lives in Cottage Grove, is running for the House this year after narrowly losing a race for the state Senate in 2022. He’s taking on Hastings City Council Member Jen Fox, a DFLer who is part owner of Spiral Brewery in Hastings.

After serving one term in the House, Republican Rep. Shane Hudella is not seeking re-election. The district narrowly voted for Biden in 2020, making it a target for the Democrats.

48B: Lucy Rehm (DFL) vs. Caleb Steffenhagen (R)

This Carver County district includes most of Chanhassen and part of Chaska in the southwest suburbs.

DFL Rep. Lucy Rehm, a former Chanhassen City Council member, is running for a second term. In her first term she carried a bill to rename a section of Hwy. 5 for Prince. She’s being challenged by Republican Caleb Steffenhagen, a middle school history teacher at a charter school and officer in the Army National Guard.

Rehm won by just over 400 votes in 2022 in the fast-growing area. While Trump performed poorly here in 2020, Republicans see an opportunity to attack her on the DFL’s agenda over the past two years.

54A: Brad Tabke (DFL) vs. Aaron Paul (R)

This House district encompasses most of Shakopee in the southwestern metro.

DFL Rep. Brad Tabke, a horticulture consultant and former Shakopee mayor, was first elected in 2018 and served two nonconsecutive terms in the House. Republican challenger Aaron Paul is a Bloomington police officer who has worked as a school resource officer.

The Legal Marijuana Now candidate won more than 4% of the vote in this district in 2022, well above the margin by which Tabke won that year. Republicans are hopeful that with a strong candidate they can beat him this fall, but Democrats see the district trending in their favor.

57B: Jeff Witte (R) vs. Brian Cohn (DFL)

This Dakota County district covers the northeast corner of the fast-growing suburb of Lakeville.

Republican Rep. Jeff Witte is a former Burnsville police officer and school resource officer running for a second term. His DFL challenger is Brian Cohn, a volunteer leader and small-business owner in Lakeville.

Witte won his 2022 election by fewer than 700 votes. With Democratic attention focused on helping U.S. Rep. Angie Craig’s re-election in her south metro congressional district, more Democrats could turn out — but that will be a challenge in Republican-leaning Lakeville.

about the writers

Briana Bierschbach

Reporter

Briana Bierschbach is a politics and government reporter for the Star Tribune.

See More

Josie Albertson-Grove

Reporter

Josie Albertson-Grove covers politics and government for the Star Tribune.

See More

Tom Nehil

Newsroom developer

Tom Nehil is the Star Tribune’s newsroom developer, using code to help find and tell stories.

See More

Bryan Brussee

Digital Designer

Bryan Brussee is a digital designer for the Star Tribune.

See More

Ellie Lin

Intern

Ellie Lin is a design intern for the Star Tribune.

See More