No Really - It's November!

September-like warmth continues with near record warmth possible on Wednesday. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

November 1, 2022 at 2:30AM

Recounts from the Memorable Blizzard

"How can you forget the one Halloween in your life that came with two feet of snow? KFAI's Britt Aamodt was studying biology at Gustavus Adolphus College when a record snowstorm blasted its way into her life. She wasn't alone in experiencing the legendary Halloween Blizzard of 1991, a storm that closed schools, shuttered stores and workplaces and left an indelible memory on those that experienced it. (Photo by Peter Boulay)"

Recounts From the Memorable Blizzard (KFAI's Britt Aamodt and Sound Cloud/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"25 photos that perfectly capture the Halloween blizzard of 1991"

Whether you lived through it or have only heard the stories, the Halloween blizzard of 1991 was truly something to remember.

Two MTC busses got stuck, leaving only a narrow path between them. Here, another bus inched through. (DUANE BRALEY – RPA - MINNEAPOLIS STAR TRIBUN/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Remembering the 1991 Halloween Blizzard

"Even many years later, the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 remains one of Minnesota's signature extreme weather events, and stands as a benchmark against which other winter storms are compared. An odd combination of extreme intensity, duration, and timing—it was unusually early in the season, especially given its ferocity—make this one of the state's great historical blizzards. With its scenes of stranded cars, pumpkins buried in snow drifts, and abandoned roads, those who experienced the Halloween Blizzard in 1991 won't soon forget it. The storm, like many significant moments in history, is one that people remember vividly, with adults and children alike at the time recalling where they were and what they were doing. Referred to as the "Mega Storm" and the "Storm of the Century" at the time, this exceptional storm came as Minnesotans were still celebrating the Minnesota Twins second World Series win in just four years. After a spell of warm and pleasant weather, a cold front ushered in unseasonably cold air. The high temperature in the Twin Cities was 65 degrees on the 29th, over ten degrees above normal. On October 30th, the high temperature in the Twin Cities only reached 32 degrees."

Twin Cities Halloween Blizzard Records (National Weather Service/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Halloween Blizzard Snow (National Weather Service/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"The U.S. Is in for Another Super-Dry Winter"

"The latest forecast from NOAA says that La Niña will make for a dry winter—a sign that we can expect another year of drought. Don't expect much relief from the ongoing drought out West this coming winter. La Niña is returning for its third consecutive year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced this week. This means that Western states will continue to see drier-than-average conditions this winter. "Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast."

U.S. Drought Outlook For Winter 2022-2023 (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Record Warmth on Wednesday?

Temperatures on Wednesday could reach record levels for some with highs warming into the 60s and 70s. Note the record high in the Twin Cities is 73F and the forecast is in the low/mid 70s. Brainerd could see a record high with temps warming into the mid 60s.

Record Warmth Possible Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Near Record Warmth This Week

Here's a look at the high temps through the week ahead with near record warmth on Wednesday. It looks like we'll cool to near normal levels by late week.

5 Day Temperature Outlook vs Records For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average This October

It was a very dry October with many locations nearly 1" to 2" (or more) below average precipitation. The Twin Cities finished more than 2.25" below average, which was the 6th driest October on record in the Twin Cities. St. Cloud finished at the 7th driest on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average This October (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall

If you look at the precipitation deficit for the season (since September 1st) the deficit is even greater. Many locations are well below average with the Twin Cities now more than 5" below average since September 1st, which is the 2nd driest start to meteorological fall on record at the MSP Airport.

Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall (Since September 1st) (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is now more than 10" below average for the year, which is the 16th driest start to any year on record (through October 31st). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.50" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since January 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Dry Through Wednesday, Then a Pattern Shift

Dry and very warm weather continues through about midweek before our weather pattern shifts a bit. Showers and a few thunderstorms may be possible late Thursday with lingering showers across parts of the Midwest through the weekend. Much needed, soaking rains, could be possible across parts of the region. Stay tuned...

Weather Outlook Through Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation potential shows decent rainfall showing up across parts of the region. At this point, the heaviest appears to be across southeastern MN and into Wisconsin, but this could also change over the next few days. Stay tuned...

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday November 1st looks more like a September weather map with highs warming into the 60s and 70s with record warmth possible in some locations, especially near Sioux Falls, SD.

Weather Outlook Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows very warm weather in place for the first day of November. In fact, low/mid 70s is more typical of mid September. Skies will be sunny with SSW winds increasing a little more by the afternoon.

Tuesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Tuesday shows temps starting in the low/mid 40s in the morning and warming into the low/mid 70s by the afternoon. We'll have dry and sunny skies with SSW winds around 10mph to 15mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows very warm and near record highs possible through Wednesday. It'll still be well above average on Thursday, but we've got a pattern shift and cooler temps expected into the weekend. Highs will return to near normal levels again by Friday, which is around 50F.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well above average temperatures continuing through the first few days of November. Rain and possibly some thunder arrives late Thursday with lingering rain chances through the weekend. Note that temps will be a little closer to average late week and into the weekend ahead.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. The NBM Model shows temps warming into the 60s and 70s through Thursday before tumbling to more appropriate November levels as we approach the weekend and into next week. Next week could actually be a little cooler than average as we approach mid month.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps in place across the Eastern US. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will settle in across the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather setting up from the Western US to the Midwest with drier weather in the Southern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

No Really - It's November!
By Paul Douglas

"...No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease. No comfortable feel in any member. No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees. No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds, November!

I can't top poet Thomas Hood, but let me add" No bugs, no hail, no humidity and no sweat." Welcome to another day of unmitigated weather bliss with a good shot at 70 degrees by mid afternoon. That's more than 20 degrees above average. Wednesday's record high of 72 in 1978 is in danger of being broken. Soak up one more September reprieve because next week will feel like.. wait for it...November.

Speaking of NO there has been little to no rain for too many months. We could use a good dousing, and models hint at some 1"+ rains from Thursday night into Saturday as cold air begins its inevitable march south. As always your results may vary, but it's the best chance of significant, widespread rain in months.

A week from today flurries may arrive. So shove the parkas aside. Grab some leftover Halloween candy and sit on the deck. Aaah.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Mild sunshine. Winds: S 7-12. High: 71.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and mild. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 53.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and breezy. Record is 72. Winds: S 10-20. High: 73.

THURSDAY: Clouds increase. Nighttime showers. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 68.

FRIDAY: Cold rain likely. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 41. High: 48.

SATURDAY: Periods of rain, still raw. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 52.

SUNDAY: Drier with lingering clouds. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 40. High: 55.

MONDAY: Windy and milder. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 44. High: 60.

This Day in Weather History

November 1st

2000: An F1 tornado touches down on a farm east of Prinsburg in Kandiyohi County destroying a small storage shed. It also tipped another shed on its side, and ripped off a portion of the roof of a third shed.

1999: High winds are reported in central Minnesota. The St. Cloud State University Meteorology Department in Stearns County recorded a 65 mph gust. The Morris AWOS in Stevens County posted a 62 mph gust and the Willmar AWOS in Kandiyohi county recorded a 59 mph gust. Area-wide sustained winds of 40 mph occurred, with gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range.

1991: Classes are canceled across the state due to the Halloween Blizzard. Three foot drifts are measured across I-94 from the Twin Cities to St. Cloud. MSP airport records its all-time record daily snowfall total of 18.5 inches.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 1st

Average High: 50F (Record: 77F set in 1933)

Average Low: 34F (Record: 10F set in 1951)

Record Rainfall: 1.85" set in 1991

Record Snowfall: 18.5" set in 1991

Twin Cities Almanac For November 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 1st

Sunrise: 7:51am

Sunset: 6:01pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 10 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 48 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 29 minutes

Moon Phase for November 1st at Midnight

1.0 Days Since First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For November 1st (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows well above average temps continuing across the much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation for the first day of November. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will begin to develop across the West Coast as a storm system begins to take shape.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

Lingering rain and a little thunder will be possible in the Northeastern US. Meanwhile, a new storm system is taking shape in the Western US with rain and thunder along the coast and rain/snow in the higher elevations.

National Weather Maps For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Wednesday shows showers diminishing in the Northeast with another storms system developing in the Western US. Widespread precipitation including snowfall will be likely for many in the West.

Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will continue in the Central and Southern US with the heaviest in the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall outlook, which shows heavy snow potential in the mountains across the Western US. It's too early to tell, but parts of the High Plains and Midwest could get in on some snow late next week as well. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Homeowners Hit Hard By September's 'Supercell' Storm And Flooding Won't Get Federal Relief"

"Nearly 2,000 North Side residents reported flooding in their basements after the September storm overwhelmed city sewers and created flash floods. Homeowners who were hit hard by September's massive rainstorm and flooding won't get federal relief. The supercell storm, which drenched hundreds of North and Northwest sides homes Sept. 11, did not meet the criteria needed for those affected to receive federal loans to cover uninsured portions of damage, Ald. Samantha Nugent (39th) said in a newsletter to residents this week. The city's Office of Emergency Management and Communications worked with the Illinois Emergency Management Agency and the Small Business Administration to survey damage at homes and found 400 homes with uninsured losses, Nugent said, citing a letter from the city's emergency office. But only eight properties met the threshold for the loan; for the disaster to qualify for federal relief, at least 25 businesses or homes must have had damage of at least 40 percent of the estimated repair value, Nugent said."

"Climate change raised temperatures for 7.6 billion"

"Human-caused climate change made everyday temperatures warmer for 7.6 billion people last year, according to a new analysis by research and news nonprofit Climate Central. The big picture: Impacts of the warming planet on daily temperatures are being felt by roughly 96% of the world's population, with the strongest influences in cities across the Global South. Context: Climate Central researchers measured the influence of climate change on daily average temperatures for 1,021 major global cities between Oct. 1, 2021 and Sept. 30, 2022. They used the organization's newly expanded "Climate Shift Index," which quantifies how much climate change has altered the likelihood of daily average temperatures at locations worldwide. What they found: On any given day over the last year, at least 200 million people experienced temperatures that climate change made more likely, the analysis shows."

"Battle of the Alps? Water woes loom amid climate change"

"A battle is brewing around Europe's rooftop over the planet's most precious resource. The crystal-clear waters issuing from the Alps could become increasingly contested as the effects of climate change and glacier melt become more apparent. Italy wants them for crop irrigation in the spring and summer. Swiss authorities want to hold up flows to help hydroelectric plants rev up, when needed. For the first time in four years, government envoys from eight Alpine countries — big, small and tiny — were meeting under a grouping known as the Alpine Convention, which was set up 30 years ago to help coordinate life, leisure and the limited resources from Europe's most celebrated peaks."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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