Groundhog day is always a first step toward spring. However, we're still nearly 7 weeks away from the Vernal Equinox. According to lore, if sees his shadow, there will be 6 more weeks of winter. If not, it will be an early spring. According to the NWS, #PunxsutawneyPhil has a 40% accuracy rate of predicting the start of spring in the last decade.

Take a look at the winter weather alerts that stretch from the Front Range of the Rockies and Texas all the way to Detroit and the Northeast. This will be a long duration event that could bring significant amounts of snow and ice to portions of the Central US from Tuesday into Friday. There will also be strong winds, which could create power outages and severe travel impacts.

Here's the extended snowfall outlook through the week and weekend ahead. Note the heavy swath of snow from the Central US to the Northeast. Some of the heaviest snow could easily exceed 6" from the Middle Mississippi Valley to parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region and even into the Northern New England States. Keep in mind that there will significant travel disruptions in these areas as the storm unfolds over the coming days.

Here's the freezing rain and sleet potential through the week, which shows areas of icing from Texas to the Northern New England States. Not only will the icing potential cause very slick roads, but there could also be power outages if icing and wind gusts become significant enough.

The national weather outlook through the middle part of the week shows a very large area of precipitation developing across the Central US around midweek. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible in the Southern US with flood concerns for some. There will also be enough cold air in place for heavy snow and icing to take shape across the Front Range of the Rockies and into the Southern Plains all the way to the Northeast through the end of the week. This will likely be a large and disruptive storm system for many over the first several days of February.

Here's the weather outlook closer to home into the weekend. A major winter storm will stay well to our south, while cold air settles in through the end of the week. Temps over the weekend will warm to near average levels.

The latest snow depth reports show a fairly decent base across the region. The Metro was reporting around 7" as of Monday morning, but has you head north, there are some double digit reports. According to the MN DNR Snowmobile and cross-country ski trails are generally reported to be in good to very good conditions across the northern half of the state. Trails in the southern half of the state are reported to poor condition with little to now snow on the ground there.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

Here's a look at how much snow we've seen so far this season. Note the Twin Cities has seen nearly 33", which is +3.0" above average. Grand Forks, ND has seen nearly 40" of snow, which is nearly 1ft above average! Heading south into South Dakota, many locations there are below average and more than 1ft below average in Pierre and Huron. Folks in southern Wisconsin are also nearly 1ft below average, including Madison and Milwaukee. The Golden Snow Shovel award winner goes to Marquette, MI, where nearly 114" of snow has fallen, which is only a couple of inches above average.

Here's the 850mb temp anomaly through the first few days of February, which shows cold temps in place with highs running well below average. However, we'll see slightly warmer temps over the weekend.

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows very chilly temps with highs only warming into the single digits. Breezy NW winds will make it feel more like the sub-zero range all day.

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday show temps starting in the single digits below zero with highs only warming into the single digits by the afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to near 15mph through much of the day making it feel more like the sub-zero range all day.

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday will be quite cold with readings hovering in the teens and single digits below average through the day.

High temps across the region on Wednesday will only warm into the single digits above and below average, which will be nearly -15F to -25F below average for early February.

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows highs falling into the single digits on Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will be nearly -15F to -20F below average through the 2nd half of the week. However, highs on Saturday will warm to above average levels once again.

It's be a cold first few days of February with temps running well below average midweek. The cold air is fairly short-lived, though as temps warm into the mid 20s again by Saturday, which will be near average. Highs on Tuesday will once again warm to near the freezing mark.

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, will be quite cold through the first few days of February. However, we'll warm to near and above average levels by the weekend and into early next week.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows below average temps across the Southern US. However, warmer than average temps will develop across the High Plains

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather across the Western US. Meanwhile, more active weather will be found along the Front Range of the Rockies and the Gulf Coast.

I'm ready for some good news, and here's a weather nugget that may help: February 2022 will, in no way, resemble February 2021. In case you were in a cave or a coma, February of last year brought 12 consecutive subzero nights at MSP. Four days of daytime subzero "highs". The Polar Vortex loitered overhead for an extended spell. Mercifully, that appears unlikely this year.

Will we see more toe-curling belches of wintry air? Yes. Take it to the bank. Sustained week-after-week below zero? No. The pattern is slowly shifting gears. Another run of subzero chill today into Friday morning, then prevailing winds will become westerly, blowing from Seattle instead of the Yukon. That should be good for 30s next week; ECMWF predicts a few days near 40. That's 40 above zero. We are due for a real thaw.

In the meantime, today's outbreak of character-building cold keeps the main storm track to our south. A major ice storm is possible from Dallas and Louisville to Pittsburgh this week. But no big weather drama here.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, numbing. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 6. Feels Like: -20

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cold. Winds: NNW 5-10. Low: -11. Feels Like: -25F.

THURSDAY: Harsh sunlight, winds ease. Winds: N 3-8. High: 2.

FRIDAY: Weak clipper, coating of flakes? Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: -9. High: 15.

SATURDAY: Glimmers of sun, milder. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: -6. High: 29.

SUNDAY: Few flurries, a colder wind. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 8 High: 16.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, closer to average. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: -2. High: 22.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, dripping icicles. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: -15. High: 32.

February 2nd

1996: The all-time state record low temperature is set in Minnesota. With numerous media folk present, the low dips to -60 three miles south of Tower. Governor Arne Carlson cancelled school statewide due to the cold.

1988: The temperature bottoms out at -43 at Embarrass.

1927: Spring-like temperatures are felt on Groundhog Day. Tracy is 57 and Fairmont reaches 56.

February 2nd

Average High: 25F (Record: 48F set in 1991)

Average Low: 9F (Record: -32F set in 1996)

Record Rainfall: 0.80" set in 1919, 1983)

Record Snowfall: 8.8" set in 2016

February 2nd

Sunrise: 7:30am

Sunset: 5:22pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 51 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 36 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 5 Minutes

2.0 Days Since New Moon

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well below average temps across the Central US with readings running nearly -15F to -30F in the wake of a large winter storm that will bring significant snow and ice from Texas to the Northeast over the coming days.

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found across parts of the Southern US with several inches of precipitation possible in the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast States.

"Scientists recorded a single lightning flash lasting 17.1 seconds in June of 2020 over Uruguay and northern Argentina, becoming the longest lasting lightning flash ever recorded, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced. Why it matters: The strike was one of two new new lightning-related world records established by the WMO on Monday, the other being a lightning strike that covered around 477 miles in the southern U.S. on April 29, 2020. The WMO's Committee on Weather and Climate Extremes uses weather satellites to maintain official records of global, hemispheric and regional weather extremes. By the numbers: The distance of the April strike is equivalent to the distance between New York City and Columbus, Ohio, or between London and the German city of Hamburg and was 60 km longer than the previous record. The previous longest duration flash was 16.7 seconds. Our thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: Thanks to new observing platforms, scientists are gaining new insights into how lightning forms, its many varieties and the impressive characteristics it can exhibit. The satellite-mounted Global Lightning Mapper is one of the tools allowing researchers to track lightning from above, in addition to ground-based sensors. These newly certified records, in fact, could be eclipsed soon due to the new observing capabilities."

See more from Axios HERE:

See more From Science Alert HERE:

"The conversion of forests to agricultural land is happening at a mind-boggling speed. Between 2015 and 2020, the rate of deforestation was estimated at around 10 million hectares every year. Compared to 2012, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) is predicting a massive increase in agricultural demand of 50% by 2050. In South America, around 71% of rainforest has been replaced by pasture and a further 14% has been lost to the production of animal feed. One of the key successes of COP26 was a pledge from world leaders to end deforestation by 2030. From a climate and carbon point of view, we know that cutting down trees at this scale is devastating. But the impacts run deeper: 75% of the world's accessible fresh water arises from forested watersheds. And with 80% of the world's population facing a threat to their water security, trees play a very significant role in stemming desertification and preventing soil erosion. They also protect against flooding in coastal areas as well as being home to a huge number of species, many of which are important crop pollinators."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

"It was a seemingly inconsequential homework assignment that saved Charles Lyman III's life on a frigid night in January 1922. Then a 14-year-old prep school student, Lyman was visiting family in Washington, D.C. when a major storm buried the city under almost two and a half feet of snow. On Saturday, January 28—the second day of the blizzard—Lyman's cousin David suggested spending a cozy evening watching a movie at the Knickerbocker Theatre in nearby Lanier Heights (now known as Adams Morgan). Lyman told him to go ahead with a friend, Kirkland Duke, and promised to join the pair after finishing his schoolwork. Trudging through the snow about a half block away from the theater, Lyman heard a sudden boom followed by a chorus of terrified screams. The Knickerbocker's roof had come crashing down, overwhelmed by the weight of the record-breaking snowfall. In total, the collapse killed 98 people—including David and Kirkland—and injured another 133. According to Kevin Ambrose, author of a 2013 book on the blizzard, the tragedy marked the city's deadliest single-day disaster. A century later, however, the Knickerbocker Theatre remains little known among the denizens of the nation's capital."

See more from Smithsonian HERE: