Second Snowiest Halloween On Record
The sun stays out much of today and Thursday before a little drizzle on Friday. Steadier rain may arrive Sunday. No more snow or ice or gale-force wind gusts looking out 2 weeks. By late week highs poke into the 40s, which will feel like sweet relief. I'm not ruling out another 50F before Thanksgiving. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
It may come as a surprise, but Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) experienced its second snowiest Halloween ever recorded, as 1.7 inches of snow gracefully descended during the early hours. Notably, this year's snowfall stands as the most substantial since the notorious Halloween Blizzard of 1991, marking a significant wintry event for the region in comparison to the past decades.
Snowfall Amounts
Here is a compilation of snowfall measurements gathered from various areas across the region, revealing that the most substantial accumulation of 8.4 inches occurred in Two Harbors, MN, situated along the North Shore. Closer to the Twin Cities, snowfall ranged from 2 to 4 inches, with the official measurement at the MSP airport indicating 2.7 inches of snowfall.
Heavy Rainfall Since September 23rd
Extraordinary levels of rainfall have been witnessed in various regions of the state since September 23rd. Remarkably, specific areas in the vicinity of the Twin Cities, delineated in white and blue, have received nearly 10 inches or more of precipitation in just over a month.
Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through early next week, shows a swath for 0.25" to 0.50" tallies across the southern half of the state, including the Twin Cities. Amounts get a little heavier as you work east into Wisconsin.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses are showing up in blue in pockets across parts of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and into western Wisconsin. It has been a very soggy last 6 weeks.
Drought Update
Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with more than 50% under a moderate drought (or worse). Nearly 96% of the state is still abnormally dry, but there have been improvements
Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR, much of Minnesota is at or past peak. It won't be long now and most of the trees will be bare until sometime in May...
Wisconsin Fall Color Update
Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.
Typical Peak Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.
7 Day Atlantic Outlook
The 7 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows another potential system developing in the Tropics. According to NOAA's NHC, this system has a medium chance of tropical formation as it drifts west through the Caribbean.
Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, November 1st will still be quite cold for this time of the year with readings only warming into the mid/upper 30s. This will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for this time of the year. Note that feels like temps will be in the 10s and 20s for much of the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the mid 20s in the morning and will warm into the mid/upper 30s by the afternoon, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for this time of the year. South to Southwesterly winds will be breezy with gusts up to near 20mph, which will make it feel like the 10s and 20s for much of the day.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday still looks quite chilly with readings warming into the 30s across much of the state. These readings will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for this time of the year. The skies will be dry with partly cloudy skies.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well below average over the next several days. Highs will only warm into the 30s and 40s, which will be nearly -5F to -15F below average for the end of October and early November.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows chilly weather lingering into the early part of November. We'll gradually warm into the mid 40s as we approach the end of the week/weekend, but we'll still be below average. We may see a bit of a wintry mix as we approach the weekend.
Colder Than Normal Lingers Into November
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be significantly cooler over the next several days with highs only warming into the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s over the next several days as well.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across the Central US will be a little quieter through the rest of the week. However, as we approach the weekend, a storm system will move in from the Pacific Northwest with the potential of rain and snow. As we head into the first full week of November, things looks a little more unsettled across the Central US. Stay tuned...
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the western half the nation. Meanwhile, things look chillier than normal in the Eastern US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows drier than average weather across the southeastern US and the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, it could be a little more active across the Plains and the Western US.
Second Snowiest Halloween On Record
By Paul Douglas
I am still triggered by the sight of Halloween costumes. My name is Paul, and I have weather-related PTSD, thanks to the infamous Halloween Blizzard of 1991. I went out on a limb and predicted 4-8". Two days and 28.4" later... Every storm in uniquely humbling but this was off-the-scale humiliating.
Why the mega-bust? The "Perfect Storm" captured in Sebastian Junger's novel and subsequent movie stalled unexpectedly off the coast of New England. Which caused Minnesota's blizzard to stall over Lake Superior, prolonging heavy snow. Models didn't predict this and neither did we. Ouch.
With 2.7" at MSP International, Halloween 2023 was the second snowiest on record. And now things settle down. The sun stays out much of today and Thursday before a little drizzle on Friday. Steadier rain may arrive Sunday. No more snow or ice or gale-force wind gusts looking out 2 weeks.
By late week highs poke into the 40s, which will feel like sweet relief. I'm not ruling out another 50F before Thanksgiving. What a naive optimist.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, breezy. Winds: SW 10-20. High 39.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cold. Winds: WNW 5. Low: 26.
THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, less wind. Winds: W 8-13. High 42.
FRIDAY: Clouds leak a little drizzle. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 32. High 44.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, probably dry. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High 45.
SUNDAY: Periods of rain expected. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 36. High: 44.
MONDAY: Rain tapers, drier PM hours. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 41.
TUESDAY: Clouds increase. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High: 38.
This Day in Weather History
November 1st
2000: An F1 tornado touches down on a farm east of Prinsburg in Kandiyohi County destroying a small storage shed. It also tipped another shed on its side, and ripped off a portion of the roof of a third shed.
1999: High winds are reported in central Minnesota. The St. Cloud State University Meteorology Department in Stearns County recorded a 65 mph gust. The Morris AWOS in Stevens County posted a 62 mph gust and the Willmar AWOS in Kandiyohi county recorded a 59 mph gust. Area-wide sustained winds of 40 mph occurred, with gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range.
1991: Classes are canceled across the state due to the Halloween Blizzard. Three foot drifts are measured across I-94 from the Twin Cities to St. Cloud. MSP airport records its all-time record daily snowfall total of 18.5 inches.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 1st
Average High: 50F (Record: 77F set in 1933)
Average Low: 34F (Record: 10F set in 1951)
Record Rainfall: 1.85" set in 1991
Record Snowfall: 18.5" set in 1991
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 1st
Sunrise: 7:51am
Sunset: 6:01pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 10 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 47 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 37 Minutes
Moon Phase for November 1st at Midnight
3.1 Days Before Last Quarter
National High Temps on Wednesday
The weather outlook across the eastern two-thirds of the nation will be colder than average for the first day of November. Temps in the Western US will be warmer than average and will actually be fairly mild across California.
National Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows lingering areas of rain/snow in the Northeastern US. There will be another surge of Pacific precipitation in the Northwest.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows areas of light rain/snow ending in the Northeast, while another areas of rain and high elevation snow develops in the Northwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows widespread precipitation in the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. In fact, some locations could see several inches of liquid through the upcoming weekend. There will be another area of decent precipitation across the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across parts of the northern tier of the nation. The heaviest amounts will be found in the high elevations across the Rockies and north of the international border in Canada.
Climate Stories
"Tornado science is high stakes—and increasingly high-tech"
"One muggy day in July 1986, a news helicopter was recording footage of a festival in Minneapolis when the pilot and photographer glimpsed a tornado over nearby Brooklyn Park. They moved toward it, filming the powerful twister for 25 minutes, mesmerizing viewers watching it live on TV. Watching as the helicopter hovered within maybe a half-mile of the twister was Robin Tanamachi, who was a kid growing up in Minneapolis at the time. "We were seeing all this really beautiful interior vortex structure," she says. "I was just absolutely hooked on that, and I know I was not the only one." Today, Tanamachi is a research meteorologist at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, and one of many researchers delving into twisters' mysteries, searching for details about their formation that may bolster future forecasts."
"What It Means When Your Lungs Hurt After Breathing In Cold Air"
"The refreshing chill in the air can be a welcome change as the winter season approaches. However, it can also lead to lung or chest pain for some people, ranging from sudden and sharp to constant and dull. It's important to understand the underlying factors contributing to this discomfort and find practical solutions. Inhaling cold air can affect the respiratory system in several ways, including narrowing the bronchial tubes, irritating the airways, and triggering various responses in the body. Recognizing when the discomfort may signal a more serious issue is vital to approaching your respiratory health in the cold season proactively. For example, you should seek medical attention immediately if you experience severe or persistent pain, difficulty breathing, or a high fever (per Mayo Clinic). In addition to seeking medical help when necessary, you can take several simple steps to reduce the risk of cold-induced lung pain. Understanding the causes and symptoms of cold-induced lung pain allows you to embrace the winter season without worrying about discomfort and pain."
"How about them apples? Researchers create heat-resistant varieties"
"For an apple a day to keep the doctor away, the fruits have to be resilient to climate change.
Why it matters: Newly patented variations of apples that thrive in warm weather, developed by a University of Maryland researcher, could be a solution to stunted production in recent years.
- "We [Maryland] have the heat, we have the humidity and we have more diseases," said Christopher Walsh, a plant science and landscape architecture professor, who developed the variants.
- "Because it's hot and a long growing season, the trees grow a lot more."
Threat level: Worldwide and U.S. apple output have both decreased, the Washington Post reports.
- Hotter climates and heat waves are one of several challenges to the crop, in addition to labor shortages and fire blight, a bacterial disease.
- Walsh's new apple variations, currently called MD-TAP1 (a child of Gold Rush apples) and MD-TAP2 (a child of Fuji apples), address all of these challenges. TAP stands for Tree Architecture Project."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.