Minnesota Poll results: Trump and the 2020 presidential race

• May 25 poll analysis
• Previous poll results
• Methodology

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican?

Biden Trump Undecided 49% 44% 7% Biden Trump Undecided TOTAL 49% 44% 7% Hennepin/ Ramsey 62% 29% 9% Rest of metro 48 44 8 Southern Minn. 39 57 4 Northern Minn. 38 56 6 Men 37 54 9 Women 59 35 6 DFL/ Democrat 95 2 3 Republican 2 95 3 Independent/ other 41 42 17 18-34 53 35 12 35-49 55 40 5 50-64 44 49 7 65+ 41 52 7 Under $50,000 53 40 7 $50,000 and over 43 49 8 No college degree 44 50 6 College graduate 54 38 8 Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's job performance as president?

Approve Disapprove Not sure 45% 53% 2% Approve Disapprove Not sure Hennepin/ Ramsey 31% 67% 2% Rest of metro 46 52 2 Southern Minn. 56 42 2 Northern Minn. 56 41 3 Men 55 42 3 Women 36 63 1 DFL/ Democrat 3 97 0 Republican 95 3 1 Independent/ other 43 51 6 18-34 37 59 4 35-49 41 58 1 50-64 49 49 2 65+ 53 45 2 Under $50,000 42 56 2 $50,000 and over 50 48 2 No college degree 51 46 3 College graduate 38 60 2 Approve Disapprove Not sure 44% 52% 4% Approve Disapprove Not sure TOTAL 44% 52% 4% Hennepin/ Ramsey 24% 72% 4% Rest of metro 54 40 6 Southern Minn. 57 40 3 Northern Minn. 48 48 4 Men 49 48 3 Women 40 55 5 DFL/ Democrat 2 97 1 Republican 92 3 5 Independent/ other 44 48 8 18-34 33 63 4 35-49 38 56 6 50-64 55 41 4 65+ 46 52 2 Under $50,000 48 49 3 $50,000 and over 42 54 4 No college degree 50 47 3 College graduate 39 56 5 About the poll

The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted May 18 to May 20 with 800 Minnesota registered voters. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and KARE 11 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Inc.The sample for this survey was drawn from a Mason-Dixon database that includes approximately 2.2 million registered Minnesota voters who are matched with a telephone number – either a land line, a cell phone or both. A random sample of 100,000 voters from unique households with unique phones was drawn from this database for use in calling on this poll.Those interviewed were randomly selected by computer from this phone-matched Minnesota voter registration file with quotas assigned to reflect the state's voter registration distribution by county. For example, Hennepin County and Ramsey County combined account for 32% of the state's registered voters, so 32% of the survey interviews were completed there. The interviews were conducted via land line (35%) and cellphone (65%).The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 registered voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 38% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 29% independents or other.Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.The demographic profile of this poll of registered voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 32 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.Demographic breakdown of this polling sample