Thaw Arrives Today - Mild Start To 2023

30s will feel good today with a few (rain) sprinkles by afternoon. A coating of slush is possible Thursday night, again New Year's Eve. Models bring a plowable snowfall into town Monday and Tuesday of next week. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

December 28, 2022 at 3:34AM
(@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Buffalo blizzard death toll exceeds 30 as storm preparation questioned"

"The death toll from the Buffalo blizzard over Christmas weekend rose to 31 Tuesday, according to numbers from Erie County's chief executive. Why it matters: The toll makes this the deadliest lake effect snowstorm on record and the most lethal blizzard in Buffalo since at least 1950. It calls into question how a city so used to snow could be endangered to such an extent. By the numbers: The storm brought more than 37 continuous hours of blizzard conditions to Buffalo. The National Weather Service defines such conditions as having winds of at least 35 mph and visibility of a quarter-mile or less. (True blizzard conditions are not declared until they last for at least three straight hours.) During this storm, winds gusted to 71 mph at the Buffalo International Airport, and visibility was frequently reduced to zero — meaning true whiteout conditions were taking place. It can be easy to get lost during such conditions, even steps away from one's home."

"Buffalo's no stranger to snow. Why was the storm so deadly?"

"For 14 hours in Buffalo, emergency services technician Felicia Williams sat inside her snow-covered ambulance without food or water, helplessly listening to her dispatchers answer calls about people freezing, mothers and babies stranded in cars, oxygen tanks running out, and other first responders trapped trying to get to them. In front of her, four cars were askew in snow drifts, blocking the road. And, as the 26-year-old began to fear that even she may die there, Williams grew furious that Buffalo hadn't acted sooner to prevent people from going out on the roads in the worst storm since 1977. "I think a travel ban should have been put in place a lot earlier," said Williams, an EMT with American Medical Response in Buffalo."

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook from AM Wednesday to midday Friday shows our next week weather event moving through the region. A light wintry mix will be possible late Wednesday through Thursday with a minor snow accumulation possible.

Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to Midday Friday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minor Snow & Ice Accumulations Possible

The system that comes through late Wednesday through Thursday will bring a little rain, snow and ice potential to the central part of the state. Total liquid accumulation from this system will be anywhere from 0.10" to 0.20". Up to 1" of snow will be possible west of the Twin Cities with icing potential generally less than 0.05".

Snow Potential Through AM Friday (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Ice Accumulation Potential Through AM Friday (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities December Stats

December started on a very warm note, but thanks to much colder readings as of late, readings are running nearly -6F below average. Snowfall is +10" above average, which is the 11th snowiest start to any season on record

Twin Cities Weather Stats So Far This December (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

Thanks to our latest storm system, many places are reporting deep snowpack across the region. The heaviest being found across the Dakotas through the northern half of Minnesota into Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Meanwhile, 10" of snow covered the ground in the at the MSP Airport over the weekend, which was the 10th greatest snow depth ever recorded on Christmas Eve in Minneapolis. Duluth is reporting a snow depth of 23", which was the 6th greatest snow depth on record for Christmas Eve.

Snow Depth As of Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow So Far This December

Believe it or not, the Twin Cities has seen more than 19" of snow so far this December, which is nearly 10" above average. Interestingly, this has been the 9th snowiest start to any December on record in the Twin Cities. Incredibly, Duluth has seen more than 43" of snow this December, which is more than 28" above average and the 2nd snowiest start to any December on record.

Snowfall So Far This December (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure From Average This December (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall So Far This Season

The Twin Cities has seen nearly 33" of snow so far this season, which is more than 16" above average and good enough for the 7th snowiest start to any season on record. Meanwhile, Duluth has seen more than 61" of snow, nearly 30" above average and good enough for the 3rd snowiest start to any season on record.

Snowfall So Far This Season Since July 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Departure From Average So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Warmer Week Ahead

The 850mb temperature trend through early next week shows warmer than average temperatures continuing East of the Rockies. Temperatures will be well above average for many as we round out the end of December.

850mb Temp Anomaly Through Tuesday, January 3rd (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows warmer weather moving in and continuing through the early part of January with readings warming into the 30s. Overnight lows will be warmer than average as well with readings in the 20s.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The Twin Cities on Wednesday, December 28th will be warmer than it has been over the last several days. Highs will warm into the mid 30s, which will be well above average for the end of December.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Wednesday

Temps across the region on Wednesday will be well above average for the end of December with temps running nearly +10F to +15F above average. Many communities in the southern half of the state will warm to above the freezing mark.

Wednesday Weather Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Wednesday will be much warmer than it has been with readings starting in the upper 20s in the morning, which will actually be warmer than our average daytime highs. Temperatures in the afternoon will warm into the mid 30s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for this time of the year under mostly cloudy skies. Southerly winds will be breezy with gusts approaching 20mph throughout much of the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps through the day Wednesday won't be too bad after the stinging cold we had late last week and over the weekend. It'll actually feel more like the 20s and 30s above zero rather than below zero. Enjoy!

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The week ahead will be much warmer than it was all of last week. Readings will be nearly +5F to +10F above average through the upcoming holiday weekend.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the last the last few days of December and 2022 shows much warmer than average temperatures along with a little wintry mix Wednesday into Thursday. There could be a little wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday before another more impactful system moves in Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows warmer temperatures moving in and continuing through the early part of January 2023.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures across the eastern half of the nation as we slide into the early part of January.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the nation, especially in the Western and Eastern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Thaw Arrives Today - Mild Start To 2023
By Paul Douglas

A few thoughts about the worst blizzard to hit Buffalo in 50 years, with scores dead in their homes and vehicles. Open water on Lake Erie amplified a firehose of lake effect snow, with winds approaching hurricane force. With the exception of Duluth and the North Shore of Lake Superior, Minnesota's lakes are too small to generate lake effect snow squalls. But last week was a reminder that anyone can get stuck when high winds reduce visibility, triggering dangerous wind chills. Packing a winter survival kit is smart. So is situational awareness. When warnings are posted for your location (or destination) think twice before hitting the highways.

For the record, MSP was below 0F for 62 hours last week, the 8th longest December subzero stretch since 1945.

30s will feel good today with a few (rain) sprinkles by afternoon. A coating of slush is possible Thursday night, again New Year's Eve. Models bring a plowable snowfall into town Monday and Tuesday of next week. Mostly 30s into the first week of January? Yay!

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, few PM showers. Winds: S 7-12. High: 37.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, light mix late. Winds: S 5. Low: 16.

THURSDAY: Light mix possible. Slush at night? Winds: S 3-8. High: 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and cooler. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 16. High: 28.

SATURDAY: Light snow or flurries. Slushy. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High: 34.

SUNDAY: Cloudy, good travel weather. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 23. High: 31.

MONDAY: Snow developing, icy mix late. Winds: NE 15-25. Wake-up: 28. High: 33.

TUESDAY: Snow tapers to flurries. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 26. High: 30.

This Day in Weather History

December 28th

2000: Central and southeast Minnesota receive 6 to 10 inches of snow. Some notable snow amounts include: Chanhassen NWS Forecast Office with 7.8 inches, St Cloud with 7.5 inches, and Hutchinson, Willmar, Albany, Red Wing, and Long Prairie with 7.0 inches.

1979: Balmy weather enables the city park crew in Duluth to rake leaves.

1927: A cold snap results in sharp temperature drops across Minnesota. The temperature would fall from 41 to -15 at Farmington.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 28th

Average High: 25F (Record: 47F set in 2013)

Average Low: 12F (Record: -27F set in 1880)

Record Rainfall: 1.09" set in 1982

Record Snowfall: 12.0" set in 1982

Twin Cities Almanac For December 28th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 28th

Sunrise: 7:50am

Sunset: 4:39pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 48 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +30 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 minutes

Moon Phase for December 28th at Midnight

0.8 Day Before First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For December 28th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows a milder weather bump across much of the Central US, where temps will be running nearly +10F above average. Folks along the east and west coast will be a little closer to average for this time of the year.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Wednesday

The weather outlook for Wednesday keeps areas of wintry precipitation continuing across the Western US. Heavier rainfall will be possible along the West Coast and across parts of Arizona. Meanwhile, wintry precipitation will be possible in the Upper Midwest late in the day.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Rain and snow showers will be found in the Western US with heavy mountain snow. A piece of this storm will move into the Central US with rain and thunder across the Southern US and some wintry precipitation across the Upper Midwest.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Gulf Coast States with heavier precipitation across the Western half of the nation. Some of the heaviest precipitation will be found in the high elevations of the northern Sierra Nevada Range, where several feet of snow will be possible through next week.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be possible over the next several days across the high elevations in the Western US and across parts of the Midwest. There will also be heavy snow across parts of Central and Eastern Canada.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Snowfall vs. Snow Depth: What's the Difference?"

"When it comes to being able to back out of your driveway, navigate roads, or get school canceled, the intensity of a snowstorm is everything. A few flakes and you won't be able to plausibly remain indoors. But just because you hear about "15 inches of snowfall" doesn't necessarily mean there's 15 inches of powder on the ground. So what's the difference between snowfall and snow depth? According to Lifehacker, snowfall is easy enough to understand. It's the amount of snow that's fallen over a given period of time. A region might get 12 inches of snowfall overnight, as measured by the snow that's accumulated in an area free of obstructions, like an overhang or trees."

"Rare footage showing moose dropping its antlers captured on security camera goes viral"

"When a snowstorm headed toward Alaska the evening of Dec. 15, Tyra Bogert headed to her sister's house in case the power went out. As she scrolled through TikTok with her niece, she noticed a notification from her Ring camera. The camera, set up at her front door, had picked up some motion. Curious, Bogert clicked on the notification and watched live as a "one-in-a-million" occurrence happened. A moose walked by and shook its body, almost like a disgruntled dog, and then "pop," its antlers snapped off its head. The animal, clearly startled by what happened, quickly ran away."

"The Truth About Dripping Faucets, Frozen Pipes And Extreme Cold"

"Much of the United States is bracing for dangerously cold temperatures this weekend. Now is the time to prepare for this Arctic intrusion because it is life-threatening. Here in the Atlanta area, wind chill values will approach 0 degrees F. Values in the Midwest are even more scary (map below). As my wife and I traveled home from the mall today, we were reflecting on the old-school advice to "leave the faucets dripping when it gets really cold to prevent pipes from freezing or bursting." While there is truth to it, there are others that do not recommend this strategy. Let's explore it more carefully. The City of Houston, Texas warns its residents not to do it because it can cause the water system across the city to lose pressure. In 2021, a spokesperson for the city told KHOU 11 that such consequences could hinder firefighting efforts or lead to boil water advisories. Yet, many jurisdictions or organizations recommend the practice. On the GEICO website, Jeff Bell of Mr. Rooter Plumbing of Southern Massachusetts, recommends leaving a solid, cold trickle running during extended cold weather to prevent pipe freezing."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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