The poll numbers: Justice Kavanaugh

• Oct. 24 poll analysis Previous poll results Methodology

As you may know, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh has been accused of committing sexual assault when he was a teenager. Do you believe this allegation, or not?

Yes, believe Do not believe Not sure 35% 41% 24% Yes, believe Do not believe Other Hennepin / Ramsey 48% 27% 25% Metro suburbs 28 47 25 Southern Minn. 29 47 24 Northern Minn. 30 51 19 Men 32 48 20 Women 38 35 27 Democrats 69 7 24 Republicans 5 82 13 Independents / other 26 40 34 18-34 42 35 23 35-49 36 37 27 50-64 35 44 21 65+ 30 47 23 Under $50,000 39 37 24 $50,000 and over 34 45 21 Do you approve or disapprove of the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice?

Approve Disapprove Not sure 49% 43% 8% Approve Disapprove Not sure Hennepin / Ramsey 33% 58% 9% Metro suburbs 56 36 8 Southern Minn. 53 38 9 Northern Minn. 60 33 7 Men 57 36 7 Women 42 49 9 Democrats 6 84 10 Republicans 93 4 3 Independents / other 55 33 12 18-34 39 57 4 35-49 46 43 11 50-64 52 39 9 65+ 54 38 8 Under $50,000 40 48 12 $50,000 and over 53 42 5 Brett Kavanaugh said he would be an "independent and impartial" justice if confirmed to the Supreme Court. Now that he has been confirmed, do believe Kavanaugh will or will not be "independent and impartial"?

Yes, he will No, he will not Not sure 52% 39% 9% Yes, he will No, he will not Not sure Hennepin/Ramsey 40% 53% 7% Metro suburbs 57 33 10 Southern Minn. 57 34 9 Northern Minn. 59 31 10 Men 60 34 6 Women 44 44 12 Democrats 11 77 12 Republicans 96 3 1 Independents / other 56 31 13 18-34 37 53 10 35-49 53 40 7 50-64 56 37 7 65+ 56 33 11 Under $50,000 47 47 6 $50,000 and over 56 36 8 Does the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court make you more likely to vote for Democrats or Republicans?

Democrats Republicans Neither Not sure 41% 39% 13% 7% Democrats Republicans Neither Not sure Hennepin / Ramsey 56% 24% 15% 5% Metro suburbs 33 47 11 9 Southern Minn. 35 44 11 10 Northern Minn. 33 44 17 6 Men 34 45 15 6 Women 47 33 11 9 Democrats 84 1 9 6 Republicans 2 86 7 5 Independents / other 27 34 27 12 18-34 52 32 11 5 35-49 43 38 12 7 50-64 36 42 15 7 65+ 35 41 14 10 Under $50,000 45 30 16 9 $50,000 and over 38 44 12 6 About the poll

This Star Tribune/MPR News Minnesota Poll findings are based on interviews conducted Oct. 15-17 with 800 Minnesota likely voters. The interviews were conducted via land line (60 percent) and cellphone (40 percent). The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune and Minnesota Public Radio News by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. Results of a poll based on 800 interviews will vary by no more than 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus, from the overall population 95 times out of 100. Margins are larger for groups within the sample, such as Democrats and Republicans, and age groups. The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 38 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 29 percent independents or other. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken. Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com. Demographic breakdown of this polling sample