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In the wake of Finland's and Sweden's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the alliance can take a well-deserved victory lap. I commanded troops from both nations in Afghanistan, and Swedish forces in the Libyan campaign of 2011. The countries have professional and motivated personnel equipped with superb technology systems, from advanced fighter jets to stealthy naval corvettes.
This spells trouble for Russian President Vladimir Putin's military, already much depleted by its misadventure in Ukraine. Both new members have painful historical experiences with Russia. Finland comes with 800 miles of NATO border the Russians will have to plan to defend. If Putin were to invade Estonia, for example, he would now be vulnerable to being flanked through previously neutral Finland, seriously complicating his military calculus.
One aspect of the Sweden-Finland accession gaining little geopolitical attention — when all is focused on Ukraine — is how they will add to NATO's strength in the Arctic. When I visited the Nordic states a decade ago as the alliance's supreme allied commander, their defense chiefs gave me a demonstration of their winter capabilities — their mastery at operating in what our Canadian allies call the High North, above the Arctic circle. I came away deeply impressed.
So, given the new members, what would a coherent NATO strategy for the increasingly important Arctic look like?
Step back and look at the geography. The top of the world is a geopolitical Thunderdome, with the prize of the Arctic Ocean at the center. As global warming removes more and more of the ice cover, access to vital shipping routes and hydrocarbons — oil and gas — will be increasingly crucial for the nations on the front porch of the Arctic Sea. (My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Liam Denning, newly returned from the region, is doing an excellent series of articles and videos on all this.)
Before Sweden and Finland, five such countries were already NATO allies: Canada, Denmark (by virtue of Greenland), Iceland, Norway and the U.S. The two new allies, despite lacking ocean coastlines, are considered Arctic nations. About 15% of Sweden and a third of Finland are within the Arctic Circle: the region known as Lapland. Seven NATO allies now face Russia across the Arctic Ocean.