The full extent of the damage from Sunday's historic Timberwolves loss to the Blazers won't be official until the end of the week, but we do know this: It's almost certain that the Wolves will wind up in the play-in tournament, and it is more likely than not that they will need to win two play-in games instead of just one if they are going to make it to the actual playoffs.
Timberwolves suffering: 'Worst' NBA loss in 30 years, bad damage in playoff quest
Portland beating the Timberwolves after being 19.5-point underdogs qualified as the biggest pro basketball upset since 1993 and smacked them hard in the NBA's unique postseason.
April 4, 2023 at 11:26AM
Those are the repercussions of doing something that hasn't been done in 30 years (and not in a good way). Per ESPN Stats and Information, the Blazers winning as 19.5-point underdogs qualified as the largest NBA upset since 1993.
The damage is clear: Almost all projection sites that try to sort out where teams are going to finish at the end of the year had pre-emptively put that game solidly into the win column for the Wolves. Now that it's an L instead, a picture that looked at least reasonably optimistic is now far more bleak, as Patrick Reusse and I talked about on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast.
The Lakers loss on Friday was understandable as a toss-up game. The Blazers game was not. And here's the impact:
Late last week, before the Wolves played (and lost to) the Lakers, Basketball Reference gave Minnesota a 75% chance of making the playoffs and a 40% chance of finishing as a top-6 seed. Those chances are down to 43% and 6%, respectively.
The Wolves are now the No. 9 seed in the West and trail all the teams above them by at least two games in the loss column. And No. 9 is the most likely spot by far (51.2%) that they will finish the season.
As the No. 9 seed, they would need to win two play-in games just to reach the playoffs: A home game against the No. 10 seed, and then a road game against the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game. If they drop to the No. 10 seed, they would need to win two road games just to make the playoffs.
If they can jump back up to No. 7 or No. 8, they would just need to win once to make the playoffs. And there is still that slim 6% chance they will finish in the top-6 and avoid the play-in altogether.
But what looked just a few days ago like a team poised to perhaps crack the top-6 (and maybe earn a favorable playoff matchup against No. 3 Sacramento) and do no worse than No. 8 is now faced with the likelihood of a much tougher postseason path.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
