Ben Goessling's Vikings-Colts preview and prediction: Who wins and why?

When: Noon Saturday, U.S. Bank Stadium

TV, radio: Ch. 5, NFL Network, 100.3-FM

Line: Vikings by 3½

Defense tries to rebound: Coach Kevin O'Connell called for the Vikings to be more aggressive defensively after they gave up more than 400 yards for the fifth straight game in a 34-23 loss to the Lions on Sunday. The Vikings return home to face the Colts' 31st-ranked scoring offense, with a chance to revitalize their pass rush and tighten things up in their secondary against Colts quarterback Matt Ryan.

Jefferson has record in sight: A year ago, Justin Jefferson ended the season 16 yards short of Randy Moss' franchise record for receiving yards in a season, as fans booed the Vikings' decision to run the clock out rather than throwing him the ball once more. This year, Jefferson already has 1,500 yards through 13 games, and is just 132 shy of matching Moss.

Darrisaw returns to left tackle: Though left tackle Christian Darrisaw cleared the concussion protocol two weeks ago, the Vikings opted for caution while holding him out against the Jets and Lions. Darrisaw is set to return Saturday, giving the Vikings a key piece of their protection unit against a formidable Colts pass rush.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Colts CB Stephon Gilmore: Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has run a Cover-3 scheme dating back to his time with Pete Carroll in Seattle, and the Colts added Gilmore to be their top cover corner. They use the five-time Pro Bowler on both sides of the field almost equally, so Jefferson can expect to see plenty of him in what should be a physical matchup.

Vikings' offensive line vs. Colts' defensive line: The Vikings were high on Kwity Paye before the Colts took him in the first round of the 2021 draft; Paye, who has five sacks this season, will line up next to 6-7 tackle DeForest Buckner, whom the Vikings remember well from his time in San Francisco. Former Viking Yannick Ngakoue has 8½ sacks this season; he'll test Darrisaw with a variety of pass-rushing moves.

17.4: Percentage of the Colts' offensive possessions that have ended in a turnover — the highest rate in the NFL this season.

Their defense, which has generated only two takeaways in its past four games, gets back to forcing turnovers the way it did early this season against a Colts team that's been prone to giving the ball away. The group can help itself by handling a struggling Indianapolis offensive line and keeping Jonathan Taylor, the league's rushing champ a year ago, from posting just his third 100-yard game of an underwhelming season.

They can control the game with Taylor on offense and force the Vikings into a dropback game that allows their pass rush to get after Kirk Cousins throughout the day. The Colts, who have scored over 30 points only once this season and haven't eclipsed 20 in a month, won't want to turn this game into a shootout with the Vikings offense; expect Indianapolis to work to slow the game and try to win ugly.

The Colts' pass rush could give the Vikings trouble, particularly with center Garrett Bradbury questionable for the game because of a back injury. But Indianapolis doesn't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Vikings if Cousins gets time to find Jefferson. The Vikings will hold off Indianapolis and clinch the NFC North title for the first time in five years. Vikings 26, Colts 20