Second Thoughts: Vikings won the turnover battle and lost to the Rams, setting a dubious franchise record

In the second quarter on Sunday, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford evaded Vikings defensive end D.J. Wonnum, scrambled to his left and flung a pass back toward Sony Michel on the right side of the field. Anthony Barr snagged it for an easy interception, running it back to the Rams 11.

On the Rams' second play of the third quarter, Stafford heaved a deep ball for Van Jefferson into double coverage, and Xavier Woods ran the interception back to the Vikings 38.

Then, on the Rams' next possession, Dalvin Tomlinson tipped a Stafford pass for Tyler Higbee, Barr corralled it and ran his second interception of the day back to the Rams 2.

The Vikings scored just 10 points on those drives, in a game they would lose by seven.

"I mean, we lost the game, so obviously that's a missed opportunity," Barr said when asked about not scoring off the turnovers.

It's an opportunity the 2021 Vikings have missed more than any team in the franchise's 61-year history.

The Vikings, who had three takeaways to just one turnover, lost for the fifth time on Sunday despite winning the turnover battle, passing the 1963 team for the most losses with a positive turnover margin in team history. They are 2-5 when winning the turnover battle this season. Only the 2013 team — Leslie Frazier's last in Minnesota — had a worse winning percentage in those games, finishing at .250 (1-3).

(Speaking of the 2013 team, Sunday's loss was the first time the Vikings were defeated while intercepting three passes since it happened twice that year: against Cleveland at home in Week 3 and in the Vikings' snowy December loss to Baltimore.)

In their five losses with a positive turnover margin this season, the Vikings' 11 takeaways created a total of 47.28 expected points. They actually scored 29 points off those turnovers, and they lost the five games by a total of 16 points.

For the season, the Vikings' 22 turnovers have been worth 88 expected points. They've scored 13 times off those turnovers, counting Nick Vigil's interception return for a TD in Week 2, and netted 62 points for the season.

"I just think we have to get points off turnovers, preferably touchdowns," quarterback Kirk Cousins said Sunday. "That's something I don't know we did well enough today, and much of this season we haven't been able to create points off turnovers."

The Vikings have the sixth-best red-zone conversion percentage in the NFL this season, but after they went 2-for-5 in the red zone on Sunday, wide receiver Justin Jefferson said, "We should be more aggressive when we get down there, as soon as we get down there," before adding, "I'm not the one calling the plays. I'm just here to do my job and do what's told to me. But we can't get down in the red zone that many times and come out with three points."

Jefferson was targeted just once in the red zone against the Rams. The Vikings were playing without Dalvin Cook, who is on the COVID-19 reserve list, and after Adam Thielen aggravated his high ankle sprain on Sunday, they were left without the man who has the second-most red zone receiving TDs in the NFL since 2019.

That's not a great set of circumstances for finishing drives, but Jefferson's comments about the Vikings' tentative approach got plenty of attention after the game, and they're sure to reverberate going forward, even if the Vikings' issues are more nuanced than that.

In any case, the Vikings missed out on a chance to score a touchdown when Barr gave them the ball 11 yards from the goal line, and they could not get to midfield after Woods picked off Stafford in the third quarter.

Whether the Vikings' problems can be solved with more aggression or simply better execution is up for debate, but the fact remains they couldn't do enough with Stafford's gifts on Sunday. After a year of missed opportunities to swing games off turnovers, they will next travel to Lambeau Field with their season on the line, facing a quarterback who's thrown just 38 interceptions in 105 regular-season starts there.

TWO PLAYERS WHO STOOD OUT

Barr: Heading into Sunday's game, he'd intercepted three passes in his career, including one already this season. Barr picked off Stafford twice on Sunday, dropping into the flat to intercept a pass for Michel in the second quarter and corralling a throw that Tomlinson tipped in the third quarter before running it back to the Rams 2. The common critique of Barr is that he doesn't make enough splash plays, but he had the first two-interception game of his career on Sunday and now has three interceptions for the year.

Jefferson: He'd caught just two passes for 15 yards in the first half of his highly anticipated matchup with Jalen Ramsey, but in the second half, Jefferson caught six passes for 102 yards, breaking Odell Beckham Jr.'s NFL record for receiving yards in the first two seasons of his career. The Vikings found ways to get him the ball especially when the Rams played zone coverage: his 21-yard reception in the third quarter came as Ramsey sat in a short zone and Dede Westbrook ran a route to clear out the Rams' safeties. Jefferson's biggest play of the day — a 34-yard catch-and-run in the third quarter — was off a play-action throw in front of Rams cornerback Darious Williams, with Ramsey on the other side of the field. Jefferson was targeted just once in the red zone, and his postgame thoughts about how the Vikings needed to be more aggressive are worth keeping in mind; of the players under 25 on the team's roster, Jefferson is the only one who's established himself.

TWO TRENDS TO WATCH

Kellen Mond's progress: With Sean Mannion on the COVID-19 reserve list after testing positive for the virus Sunday, Mond figures to go through the week getting more practice snaps than he usually does, after he was active for the first time vs. the Rams as Kirk Cousins' backup. Those inside the Vikings' practice facility say the third-round pick has made some progress in recent weeks after a slow start to his rookie year; his work with quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko has given him a better foundation in the offense, in the event he gets on the field.

That could happen in one of the season's final two games via one of three scenarios: Cousins' cracked rib takes him off the field, though the quarterback said it didn't affect him against the Rams; the Vikings get eliminated from the playoffs next week and play Mond in a meaningless Week 18 game; or Cousins, who conceded Sunday that avoiding the coronavirus would be a challenge this week, tests positive for COVID-19.

"At this point, you just have to follow the protocols, be disciplined and there's a lot of people not testing," Cousins said after the game. "So, it's in our building. It's going to be in our building. It's going to spread. We've just got to be disciplined to keep our distance and make sure that to the best of our ability we don't get it, but it is going to be difficult."

How the Packers run the ball against the Vikings: The Rams became the fourth team this season to run for at least 150 yards against the Vikings, but they did it with a bit of a different twist than previous teams had. They spent most of the day in personnel groups that would force the Vikings to play nickel, taking advantage of the fact Mackensie Alexander (a 192-pound cornerback) would be part of the run fit instead of Nick Vigil (a 230-pound linebacker).

The Rams had much of their success on outside zone runs, gaining 66 of their 159 yards when running outside the tight ends, according to Pro Football Focus. Green Bay runs an offense similar to Los Angeles' and kept the Vikings in sub packages for most of the first matchup between the teams. With Aaron Jones — who didn't play in the first game — back for this one, the Packers could try to mimic some of what the Rams did with Michel, running away from Michael Pierce and Tomlinson.

ONE BIG QUESTION

How dire are the Vikings' playoff hopes at this point? It's as simple as this: If the Eagles beat Washington on Sunday while the Vikings lose at Lambeau Field on Sunday night, they're out.

In that scenario, Philadelphia would be 9-7, with the Vikings at 7-9 and unable to catch the Eagles with one game left. Even if the 49ers (currently 8-7) were to lose their final two games against the Texans and Rams, the Vikings would be unable to pass them, since they'd finish with eight wins at most and would lose a tiebreaker to San Francisco because of their Week 12 loss at Levi's Stadium.

What if the Vikings win on Sunday in Green Bay? They'd be back in the mix of teams that could finish 9-8, with the ability to win tiebreakers against a group that finishes with the same record. In that scenario, it's plausible the Vikings end up right back at Lambeau Field in the first round of the playoffs, trying to register a third win against the Packers that would likely inject enough optimism into the fan base for ownership to keep the front office and coaches in place for 2022.

There's also a path into the playoffs for the Vikings at 8-9 if they finish tied with the Eagles, Saints and Falcons, though that path would require a lot of help, possibly starting with New Orleans losing to Miami on Monday night.

But as the Vikings prepare to take the field in Green Bay, they'll know whether they have to win to save their playoff chances — and, quite possibly, a number of jobs.