Walz is a longshot to be the VP pick, according to bettors

Despite a viral ding on “weird” Republicans, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz remains a dark horse candidate to be the choice for the Democratic vice presidential nominee.

So say the bettors, traders and bookmakers putting money on the outcome.

Online oddsmakers and prediction markets place Walz in anywhere from second to fourth place, but well behind surging front-runner Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, according to the betting and prediction market sites.

For example on Thursday morning, PredictIt, a New Zealand-based prediction market run by Victoria University of Wellington, indicated that Walz tied for second place with about a 16% chance of being the vice presidential nominee. That was the same odds given for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and just ahead of Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

Walz’s chances improved over earlier in the week, when traders gave him only a 7% chance of becoming the nominee. But he was still well back from Shapiro whose odds have been sharply rising, according to traders.

Shapiro had about a 64% chance of getting the VP nomination Thursday morning, according to traders on PredictIt; the online prediction market operates somewhat like a stock exchange, allowing U.S. traders to risk up to $850 buying and selling shares that will pay off depending on the outcome of a political event.

Walz was in fourth place on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, where speculators trading millions of dollars indicated Shapiro had a 65% chance of being the nominee, while Walz was a long shot at 8%, trailing Beshear at 11% and Kelly at 10%.

Panama-based sportsbook Betonline also pegged Shapiro as the favorite to get the VP nod, with Walz tied in third place with Kelly and behind Beshear on Thursday morning.

Electionbettingodds.com had Shapiro at a nearly 63% chance of being the VP pick on Thursday morning. Walz’s chances have improved since Wednesday when he only had a 5% chance, according to the speculation market estimate. He now stands at 10%, but he still trails Beshear’s 12%.

Jaideep Srivastava, a University of Minnesota professor of computer science and engineering, said there have been some studies that prediction markets like PredictIt have some value in forecasting the outcome of events.

Srivastava said the prediction markets have an advantage over polling because the trading happens continuously, potentially monitoring and reflecting events happening minute by minute.

“It changes dynamically,” Srivastava said. “It’s a better reflection of news.”

Unlike polling, however, the number of people who participate in prediction markets isn’t large or representative of the population.

But those who bet or speculate in prediction markets with real money have some skin in the game, so maybe they’re studying these issues more closely than the rest of us.

“When someone is putting money where their mouth is, they’re more serious about considering the question,” Srivastava said. He said prediction markets reflect “the well-considered opinion of the 2% who are participating in these markets.”