Warming Back Up This Week - Around 90F Possible For Labor Day Weekend

While it was a warm and humid start to the State Fair Thursday and Friday (with attendance hitting a new first Friday record - my wife and I counted as two of those people there that day), it certainly wasn't as blistering hot as the 98F records we saw Tuesday and Wednesday. That hot and humid weather gave way to much nicer weather this weekend, with a pretty cloudy Saturday and highs only in the mid-70s.

MSP has seen 27 days with a high at or above 90F through Sunday. That's tied for ninth most to date on record with 1894. The most through August 27th was in 1988 when 44 had occurred.

Meanwhile, through Saturday, it's been the 13th warmest August to date on record and 56th driest to date.

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It was a chilly start to the day across portions of northeastern Minnesota - mainly northeast of Mille Lacs - where temperatures dropped into the 30s. It wasn't as chilly as parts of the western U.P. of Michigan, which dropped below freezing!

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A warmer day is expected Monday in the metro after our fall-like weekend. While morning temperatures drop to the low 60s, highs will climb to the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. We will watch the potential for a few showers or storms late in the day, but it does seem like better odds are to our north.

We'll watch the chance for some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the eastern portion of the state during the afternoon hours on Monday due to a weak cold front moving through. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the 70s in northern Minnesota and 80s across the southern two-thirds of the state.

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Unfortunately, for those enjoying the more Autumn-feeling weather out there this weekend, we don't see any more of that in the near term. Highs this week will be in the 80s, with the coolest day being Tuesday behind a dying cold front. Temperatures then start climbing once again for the second half of the week, with highs approaching 90F by Friday.

As we head toward Labor Day weekend, we're looking at highs around 90F here in the metro. I don't think we can rule out some isolated storms at times, but it doesn't look like it would be anything widespread or heavy at this time. In fact, there probably won't be any significant rainfall this upcoming week, likely leading to a worsening drought again.

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Watching Idalia And Labor Day Heat
By Paul Douglas

This is the time of year when friends in Florida email, text and Myspace me, wondering about brewing storms with names. Now it's Idalia, which will tap bath water in the Gulf of Mexico (mid 90s) and possibly strengthen into a major hurricane by midweek.

A few models, including ECMWF (European) bring Idalia precariously close to Tampa, which hasn't seen a major hurricane since 1921. Tampa-St. Petersburg is the metro area most vulnerable to storm surge flooding. A major, Category 3+ storm could push 10-20+ feet of water into Tampa Bay. With any luck the storm's landfall will be well north of Clearwater, but it may be a close call.

A lonely shower is possible here tonight; otherwise a dry, comfortable, sun-splashed week is on tap with highs in the 80s into Thursday.

Under no circumstance should you write summer off just yet. Forget the calendar. I see a 90s from Friday into at least the middle of next week.

A hot, sweaty Labor Day weekend? Yep. Hey, it's a steamy, sticky Minnesota tradition!

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Warm sun, storm tonight? Wake up 65. High 86. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny and slightly cooler. Wake up 63. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and comfortable. Wake up 61. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny with a stiff breeze. Wake up 63. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Hot, sweaty sun. T-storms north. Wake up 68. High 91. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Warm sun, evacuate to the lake. Wake up 64. High 89. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Hot sunshine, feels like July. Wake up 67. High 92. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 28th

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 27 minutes, and 22 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 58 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 13 Hours Of Sunlight? September 7th (12 hours, 57 minutes, 11 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6:30 AM? August 28th (6:30 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:00 PM? August 27th (7:59 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
August 28th

1989: Baseball-sized hail pummels Pequot Lakes.

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On Monday, we are watching showers and storms across the eastern and southern United States, as well as in the Rockies, Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. However, all eyes will be on the Yucatan Channel where Idalia will be sitting before it heads toward the Southeastern United States in the early Wednesday timeframe.

The heaviest rain through the first part of the week will be in the Southeastern United States, where rainfall amounts of 3"+ will be possible.

Here is the expected track for Idalia. The system is expected to strengthen into a hurricane early in the week, and could rapidly strengthen before landfall as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. We will have to watch this system closely over the next several days for its potential impact in the Southeastern U.S., including heavy rain, storm surge, and strong winds.

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Record-Low Ice Levels in Antarctica Killed Thousands of Penguin Chicks, Study Says

More from Gizmodo: "Thousands of penguin chicks in four emperor penguin colonies likely died after Antarctic ice broke up earlier than usual last year, creating a "catastrophic breeding failure." In a study published this week in Communications Earth & Environment, researchers from the British Antarctic Survey outlined the very high probability that most chicks from four out of the five known emperor penguin colonies died in 2022. Researchers monitored five colonies that range from about 630 pairs to over 3,000 penguin pairs. They counted the birds in the colony using satellite imagery from 2018 to 2022. Through those images, they noticed that significant sea ice loss at the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea occurred before the penguin chicks would have developed their waterproof feathers."

New modeling method helps to understand extreme heat waves

More from the Cornell Chronicle: "To prepare for extreme heat waves around the world – particularly in places known for cool summers – climate-simulation models that include a new computing concept may save tens of thousands of lives. The concept, called "ensemble boosting," uses computationally efficient modeling to simulate a large set of extreme but plausible heat waves, all while avoiding hundreds of hours of expensive calculations on large computers. The study on the new modeling method, led by scientists at ETH Zurich, Switzerland and Cornell, was published Aug. 22 in Nature Communications. "As a society, we don't always need to learn from our mistakes," said co-author Flavio Lehner, assistant professor of Earth and atmospheric sciences in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. "We can learn from our forecasts and predictions.""

ALMOST AN ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOOD IS FLIPPING ITS ENERGY GRID TO A NEW, EXPERIMENTAL POWER SYSTEM

More from The Cool Down: "A neighborhood in a city outside of Boston is making headlines for being one of the first to make a comprehensive transition to geothermal energy. Local gas utility Eversource has started connecting more than 40 buildings in Framingham, Massachusetts — including low-income apartments, homes, small businesses, and a fire station — into a network with zero-emission, ground-source heat pumps, Fast Company reported. This makes the utility the first in the United States to undergo such a project on a neighborhood scale. The pilot project resulted from the Home Energy Efficiency Team, a nonprofit that initially worked with Eversource to decrease methane emissions from gas leaks. The focus gradually shifted to solutions providing affordable heating for communities — without releasing any planet-warming pollution."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser