Will we see more finches this winter? The forecast is mixed

The annual forecast of winter finch movement, issued in late September, shows mixed expectations for Minnesota. The forecast, authored by ornithologist Tyler Hoar, comes from the Finch Research Network (FiRN).

Minnesota, more or less, lies at Canada's midpoint, east to west. For the purpose of this information the boundary between Ontario and Manitoba is considered (by me) midpoint between eastern and western Canada. These forecasts use eastern and western as prediction dividers. (The birds do not necessarily pay attention.)

Finches usually seen in Minnesota include redpolls, pine siskins, crossbills and grosbeaks. They move down from Canada as opportunistic feeders, looking for tree seeds that are in short supply in home territories. Most of these birds would most easily be found in forested areas north and northwest of Duluth.

In Canadian areas west of Lake Superior the cone and berry crops are generally poor. Northern Minnesota could see hungry pine grosbeaks searching for fruiting ornamental trees. These birds take black oil sunflower seeds from feeders.

Purple finch movement south into Minnesota is not predicted, but as of Sept. 27 there had been two reports of those finches at backyard feeders in St. Paul's eastern suburbs.

An average crop of birch seeds in boreal and southern Canadian forests could bring redpolls south. Hoar says there is potential for a moderate to good flight south for these birds. They come to feeders for nyger and black oil sunflower seed, and can be found in weedy fields.

A small spruce crop in eastern Canada could push some siskins south. These birds favor nyger seed in silo feeders.

White-winged crossbills are facing a mostly poor spruce cone crop and widespread small tamarack seed crops. Those crossbills could begin to wander into Minnesota later in the winter. Expectations for red crossbills are low.

Evening grosbeaks are said to be on the move this winter, but more to our east. Outbreaks of spruce budworm have given the population a boost.

Hoar predicts we will see more blue jays this winter, since Canadian nut crops were poor, generally speaking.

Red-breasted nuthatches are crossing the border to our east. Movement began in mid-summer. Again, visits to Minnesota are classified as maybe. (We are talking about animals with wings and minds of their own.)

FiRN is a nonprofit committed to researching and protecting these birds and other threatened finch species. Find it at finchnetwork.org.

Hoar, an Ontario resident, compiled his reports from information provided by dozens of volunteer observers throughout Canada. This is the 24th annual finch report.

Follow finch wanderings this fall and winter on eBird (eBird.org), the Finch Research Network (finchnetwork.org), and the Finches, Irruptions and Mast Crops FaceBook group.

Lifelong birder Jim Williams can be reached at woodduck38@gmail.com.