The annual forecast of winter finch movement, issued in late September, shows mixed expectations for Minnesota. The forecast, authored by ornithologist Tyler Hoar, comes from the Finch Research Network (FiRN).
Minnesota, more or less, lies at Canada's midpoint, east to west. For the purpose of this information the boundary between Ontario and Manitoba is considered (by me) midpoint between eastern and western Canada. These forecasts use eastern and western as prediction dividers. (The birds do not necessarily pay attention.)
Finches usually seen in Minnesota include redpolls, pine siskins, crossbills and grosbeaks. They move down from Canada as opportunistic feeders, looking for tree seeds that are in short supply in home territories. Most of these birds would most easily be found in forested areas north and northwest of Duluth.
In Canadian areas west of Lake Superior the cone and berry crops are generally poor. Northern Minnesota could see hungry pine grosbeaks searching for fruiting ornamental trees. These birds take black oil sunflower seeds from feeders.
Purple finch movement south into Minnesota is not predicted, but as of Sept. 27 there had been two reports of those finches at backyard feeders in St. Paul's eastern suburbs.
An average crop of birch seeds in boreal and southern Canadian forests could bring redpolls south. Hoar says there is potential for a moderate to good flight south for these birds. They come to feeders for nyger and black oil sunflower seed, and can be found in weedy fields.
A small spruce crop in eastern Canada could push some siskins south. These birds favor nyger seed in silo feeders.
White-winged crossbills are facing a mostly poor spruce cone crop and widespread small tamarack seed crops. Those crossbills could begin to wander into Minnesota later in the winter. Expectations for red crossbills are low.
