Spotting trends, especially as they are just emerging, is a major goal of winemongers — it is a business, after all.
These days, what's down (in alcohol) is up. What's actually down? California chardonnay and heavy bottles. Meanwhile, nonvintage wines and Eastern European offerings have started their ascendancies.
The contributing factors are many and varied — smoke damage from fires, the seltzer craze and ubiquitous supply-chain issues — but leading the way are shifts in consumer attitudes, especially among youthful enthusiasts.
"The younger generation is coming in and asking 'Do you have a no-alcohol section?'" said Peter Plaehn, wine department manager and wine buyer at Surdyk's in Minneapolis. "People in general are just becoming more aware of the alcohol."
Plaehn said that trend even continues to celebrations, like bridal or baby showers, where everyone's got something in their hand: "It's an occasion where people are saying, 'I'm not obliged to celebrate with alcohol.'"
Indeed, Nielsen's marketing research revealed that the nonalcoholic wine category grew 27% in 2021. And that continued for at least one month into this year. As Nikki Erpelding, Top Ten Liquors' senior director of retail sales, noted: "Dry January was bigger than ever this year."
The lower-alcohol movement is just as robust. "I get at least one customer every time I'm in the store asking about lower-alcohol wines," Erpelding said.
Again, it's the younger generations driving this bandwagon. They have embraced "natural" wines, in which the grapes often are picked early and thus have lower ABV (alcohol by volume) levels. They also favor European varieties, and those wines tend to have less alcohol because the shorter growing season means less sugar, and therefore lower ABVs. Among them: Gamay from Beaujolais, Txakolina from Spain, Vinho Verde from Portugal and many reds and whites from Slovenia, Hungary, Georgia and other countries that have evolved from Soviet bloc-era plonk co-ops to making truly distinctive wines.