A Seasonably Cold (and Strange) Winter

Our snowstorm drought continues this week. The first chance of plowable snow comes next Monday and Tuesday, but big storms sail south of town - a trend for much of the winter. 30s return Friday - again Sunday, with fewer subzero nights the latter half of February. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

February 16, 2022 at 3:30AM

Next Chance of Light Snow on Friday

Here's the weather outlook from AM Wednesday to AM Monday. A strong storm will develop in the Central US with areas of heavy rain and heavy snow. Plowable snow will be possible from Kansas City, MO to Chicago, IL with strong to severe storms possible across the Southern US. Closer to home, areas of light snow will be possible on Friday as a clipper system slides through.

Weather Outlook From AM Wednesday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wednesday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows cooler temps in place with highs warming into the mid 20s. NW Winds will be a bit breezy, but not as strong as they were on Tuesday.

Wednesday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday show temps hovering in the 20s much of the day with mostly cloudy skies. Northwesterly winds will be breezy with gusts approaching 25mph in the afternoon.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wind Chill Values Wednesday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday will start teens and will hover in the single digits for much of the day.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

High temps across the region on Wednesday will be a bit cooler than it was on Tuesday. Readings will warm into the 10s and 20s across much of the state, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for mid February.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows near or below average through the end of the week. The coolest day will be on Thursday with highs only warming into the lower 10s, which will be nearly -15F to -20F below average. However, Sunday will be much warmer as we bump up in to the lower 40s.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the week ahead shows cooler than average temps through the end of the week with some light snow potential on Friday. We'll be quite a bit warmer on Sunday before some additional snow chances move in early next week.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be warmer through midweek before a brief cool down on Thursday. Temps late weekend could be warmer once again with well above average temps possible.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the Eastern US, while below average temps settle in across the western two-thirds of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather across much of the nation, especially from the Southwest to the Central US and the Ohio Valley.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Seasonably Cold (and Strange) Winter
By Paul Douglas

I unplugged the Doppler due a lack of storms and general interest. A conga-line of clippers just isn't cutting it. Paul, when will we experience an authentic "snow storm"? No time soon.

Winter got off to a promising start with nearly 12" from December 10-11; 20" reported in Woodbury! Snow-lovers were rubbing their hands with glee, but 20 MN tornadoes on the 15th day of December should have been a tip-off that winter would get weird.

Friend and colleague Sven Sundgaard reports 25 accumulating snow events so far this winter. Only two have exceeded 3 inches. Dribs and drabs of fleeting flakes. The metro has picked up nearly 37" of snow the hard way, one inch at a time, it seems. Beijing with Lakes.

Our snowstorm drought continues this week. The first chance of plowable snow comes next Monday and Tuesday, but big storms sail south of town - a trend for much of the winter.

30s return Friday - again Sunday, with fewer subzero nights the latter half of February. A March Tournament Storm? Yes please.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, brisk. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 23.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NNW 10. Low: -1.

THURSDAY: Sunny and chilly. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 11.

FRIDAY: Milder, streak of snow up north. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 4. High: 32.

SATURDAY: Chilly start with increasing clouds. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 5. High: 31.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler breeze. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High: 32.

MONDAY: Potential for accumulating snow. Winds: NE 15-25. Wake-up: 12. High: 16.

TUESDAY: Snow tapers to flurries. Winds: N 10-10. Wake-up: 7. High: 11.

This Day in Weather History

February 16th

1981: A significant warmup occurs across Minnesota. Highs in the 50s and 60s are common. 5 daily high records are broken in a row in the Twin Cities, with many others also broken statewide.

1903: A temperature of -59 is recorded at Pokegama Dam, tying the state record low at that time. It would not be broken for another 93 years.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

February 16th

Average High: 29F (Record: 60F set in 1981)

Average Low: 13F (Record: -26F set in 1936)

Record Rainfall: 0.40" set in 1878)

Record Snowfall: 3.2" set in 1938

Twin Cities Almanac For February 16th (Praedicitix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

February 16th

Sunrise: 7:11am

Sunset: 5:42pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 30 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 56 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 44 Minutes

Moon Phase for February 15th at Midnight

0.6 Days After Full "Snow" Moon

"10:56 a.m. CST Tuesday, February 16th - Usually, the heaviest snows fall in this month. Hunting becomes very difficult, and hence to some tribes this was the Full Hunger Moon."

Moon Phase For February 13th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temperatures returning to the eastern half of the nation. Scattered showers and storms will be possible in the Southern US, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Threat Wednesday & Thursday

A storm system develop midweek will be strong enough to create some severe weather potential across the Southern US. According to NOAA's SPC, there is already a highlighted risk of strong to severe thunderstorms highlighted in yellow on Wednesday and Thursday.

Severe Threat Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Severe Threat Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions will remain somewhat active across the Central US as a big storm system develops with heavy rain and severe storms in the Southern US. There will also be areas of heavy snow across the Central US and Great Lakes Region.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found across parts of the Central and Eastern US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through the week ahead, which shows areas of heavy snow from the Central US to the Great Lakes. There also looks like to be heavy snow across the Rockies and the northern tier of the nation.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Cold blob in Atlantic may be slowing ice loss from Iceland's glaciers"

Iceland's glaciers are melting more slowly than expected because they are close to a "cool blob" of water in the North Atlantic Ocean. Brice Noël at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and his colleagues devised a model to reconstruct the shrinking of Iceland's glaciers between 1958 and the present day. The model was based on regional data from the surrounding North Atlantic, as well as atmospheric data and information from the glaciers themselves. The team then used this information to …

"Experts say UN's next climate change warning will be 'a nightmare painted in the dry language of science'"

"What does climate change mean for human lives, aspirations and jobs, options for migrating to find greater economic opportunity or retiring in peace along a breezy coast? The next update in a series of key reports from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will offer a sobering warning about increasingly challenging, even uninhabitable, parts of the planet should global warming go unchecked. And the report is meant emphasize real-world scenarios, including with more input from those on the ground in already impacted regions. The series of reports — which can help set everything from global emissions targets to disaster insurance reviews to the next trend in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing ESGU, +1.26% — brings together hundreds of the world's leading scientists and are issued every five to seven years. The latest report references over 34,000 scientific papers."

"West megadrought worsens to driest in at least 1,200 years"

"The American West's megadrought deepened so much last year that it is now the driest in at least 1,200 years and is a worst-case climate change scenario playing out live, a new study finds. A dramatic drying in 2021 — about as dry as 2002 and one of the driest years ever recorded for the region — pushed the 22-year drought past the previous record-holder for megadroughts in the late 1500s and shows no signs of easing in the near future, according to a study Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study calculated that 42% of this megadrought can be attributed to human-caused climate change."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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