Best Buy looking for a holiday miracle to reverse weak demand after missing profit goal

Best Buy is blaming election uncertainty and deal-hungry shoppers for weak demand, which led to another disappointing quarter for the Richfied-based electronics chain.

The retailer reported a $273 million profit for the quarter that ended in October, which amounted to $1.26 per share. Although an improvement from last year, analysts were expecting $1.30 per share.

While Best Buy’s revenue has been down, the company had exceeded earnings expectations for nine consecutive quarters. Shares were down 8% as the stock market opened Tuesday.

The company saw comparable sales drop 2.9% this fall, and revenue of $9.4 billion also missed estimates. It lowered its financial outlook for the rest of the year and expects the holiday quarter to bring in flat sales growth at best.

Like other retailers, Best Buy has been amping up holiday sales especially early this year since Black Friday is later than normal. Customers appear to be responding well, with same-store sales up 5% in the first few weeks of November.

“As holiday sales have begun and the election is behind us, we have seen customer demand increase again,” CEO Corie Barry said in a prepared statement Tuesday. She added in a call with media that “we can definitely see customers responding to those holiday sales and value moments.”

Despite the strong start, sales are expected to fall 3% or remain the same as last year’s holiday quarter.

“We’re very cognizant of the fact that there are potential low points between sales events, particularly in December,” Chief Financial Officer Matt Bilunas said.

Barry also pointed to ongoing economic pressures that held back consumer spending this fall.

“We continue to see a consumer who is seeking value and sales events, and one who is also willing to spend on high price-point products when they need to or when there is new, compelling technology,” she said.

With the election past and the economy humming along, Best Buy could soon capitalize on some pent-up demand for phone, tablet and laptop upgrades.

“It’s not that everyone’s going to run out and buy an AI-enabled laptop, but they may want to come in store, they may want to experience it,” Barry said. “They then may want to look for different options from there that might hit their price points better.”

Shoppers may want to upgrade sooner than later to save money. JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers points out Best Buy is especially exposed to potential new tariffs.

President-elect Donald Trump on Monday vowed to raise tariffs on China another 10% and add 25% tariffs to goods imported from Mexico and Canada. Those tariffs would in many cases be passed on to consumers as higher prices, reversing a years-long drop in the average cost of consumer electronics.

Barry said Tuesday that about 60% of Best Buy’s inventory, by cost, is imported from China or relies on Chinese parts; Mexico is the second largest exporter of Best Buy’s products.

“There are very, very small margins in this industry, which means the vast majority of that tariff will probably be passed on to the consumer as a price increase,he customer ends up bearing some cost of the tariffs,” she said. “These are goods that people need, and higher prices are not helpful.”

Wedbush analyst Seth Basham ranked Best Buy as facing the highest risk of damage from new tariffs among all retailers.

“Electronics costs would increase materially,” Basham wrote. “Best Buy did a good job navigating prior rounds of Chinese tariffs — suffering moderate gross margin pressure and a slowdown in comps in 2019 — but the level of proposed tariffs and more precarious financial position of consumers makes the company more vulnerable this time.”

Barry said the company will look at “mitigation strategies,” but she doesn’t expect layoffs or store closures as a result of tariffs.

“We’ll work through everything we can to make this right for our consumers,” she said.

This story will be updated.