Trump’s new tariffs place even more stress on Minnesota farm economy

Crop prices tend to spike when there’s a shock to the global economy.

President Donald Trump’s new round of tariffs announced Wednesday will certainly act like a defibrillator across farm country, but experts say it will only deepen the ongoing downturn in U.S. agriculture.

“We invite retaliation by imposing tariffs and do damage to our own farmers,” said University of Minnesota professor and trade policy expert C. Ford Runge. “It’s an absurd course: Ready, fire, aim.”

The tariffs, announced after the financial markets closed Wednesday, are in addition to previously announced import taxes on China, Canada, Mexico, automobiles, steel and aluminum.

Countries are already firing back with counter-tariffs that will affect America’s ag exports, including major Minnesota commodities such as soybeans and pork. On Friday, China retaliated with a 34% tariff on American goods, and soy and wheat prices fell in response.

Counter-tariffs can hurt demand, which will push down commodity prices further than they have already dropped in recent years.

Last year, Minnesota farm income dropped to the lowest level this century. On average, crop farmers only broke even, according to a Minnesota State University and University of Minnesota report released Wednesday.

The outlook remains “bleak” for the year ahead, the report said, with farmers facing negative profit margins and trouble finding financing.

The costs of fertilizer and farm equipment are poised to rise given the new and ongoing tariffs. Higher costs, coupled with lower crop prices, could severely pinch U.S. producers.

“This tit-for-tat tariff exchange only weakens and obscures the signals that the market is providing: Minnesota should be at the forefront of international trade and agriculture,” Runge said.

Already, the country’s ag economy is mired in a downturn amid a global surplus of cash crops. On Wednesday, CHS reported a rare quarterly loss of $75.8 million on $7.8 billion in revenue.

The Inver Grove Heights-based cooperative’s CEO, Jay Debertin, in a statement pointed to “softer commodity markets, policy uncertainty and volatility.”

Runge said tariffs create uncertainty where confidence is a must.

“Traders like Cargill often talk about the significance of being a reliable supplier,” he said. “If you’re repping grain trade in international negotiations and don’t feel the government has your back and is unreliable and unpredictable, it sullies the prospects for successful business negotiations.”

On Wednesday, the Farm Bureau called for a “swift resolution to trade disagreements to avoid tariffs that put farmers and ranchers in the crosshairs of retaliation.”

“We share the administration’s goal of leveling the playing field with our international partners, but increased tariffs threaten the economic sustainability of farmers who have lost money on most major crops for the past three years,” said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The Trump administration will likely offset tariff-related farm losses with direct payments as it did during the last tariff-prompted trade war starting in 2018.

“You can buy off opposition from farms by handing them money, but the broad perspective is that our farmers already have a very competitive position,” Runge said. “Why are we hobbling that competitive position by inviting retaliation?”

Agriculture exports dropped by $27 billion in the 2018 and 2019 trade war, and soybeans represented 71% of that lost value, according to the libertarian Cato Institute.

“Farmers getting squeezed on both ends of a renewed and potentially uglier trade war likely means taxpayers will get squeezed to help cover the consequences,” wrote policy analyst Tad DeHaven.

Minnesota crop farmers are backing off planting soybeans in favor of more corn this year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report.

Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs, head of the left-leaning Rural USA lobbying group, said in a statement farmers “can expect the same kind of retaliation we saw during the last trade war — foreign tariffs aimed squarely at our farmers and ranchers.”

“We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends,” Gibbs said. “American farmers lose markets they spent decades building. Global buyers turn to South America or elsewhere, and those lost markets don’t come back overnight — if they come back at all. The damage is real, and it’s lasting."

The four Republicans who represent rural Minnesota districts in the U.S. House of Representatives were not immediately available for comment after the announcement Wednesday afternoon.

Rep. Tom Emmer vigorously defended Trump’s new tariff plan during a virtual town hall Wednesday evening with his central Minnesota constituents.

“How about we give this guy some grace while he tries to actually do what he’s been campaigning on for years, his mission to protect American companies and American workers,” the Republican Majority Whip said. “I tell people, tighten the buckle, because it’s going to be a bit of a ride. There’s still going to be some choppy waters, but when we come out of it on the other side, it’s going to be much better than it was beforehand, and certainly much better than it was the last four years.”

Sen. Amy Klobuchar called the president’s tariffs “reckless, they’re harmful, and they could have potentially irreversible effects, even if he announces that they are paused for a while.”

“The ones that could go under more immediately are the smaller businesses and the small farmers. They just don’t have the margin,” she said. “Those are the ones I’ve been hearing from.”

Staff writer Sydney Kashiwagi contributed to this report from Washington, D.C.