Flashes of Warmth Amid Jacket Weather
Big surprise: cooler winds return today with a few rain showers north of I-94 by afternoon. Not nearly as dramatic as the 2 feet of snow that just clocked far western North Dakota. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Saturday's storm system was quite impressive. The visible satellite loop from Saturday afternoon showed a large area of low pressure centered over the Dakotas with widespread showers and storms across the Upper Midwest. There was also heavy snow and blizzard conditions across eastern Montana and the western Dakotas.
April Weather Summary So Far
Here's the Twin Cities weather summary for April so far. Note that we're running nearly -6.0F below average through April 22nd, which is the 18th coldest start to any April on record. We're about +0.60" of an inch above average in terms of precipitation, but nearly -1.5" below average in terms of snowfall.
Large Storm Slowly Swirls East
Here's the weather outlook from AM Sunday to AM Wednesday. The large storm system that will still be impacting the area on Sunday will slowly swirl east early next week. Lingering rain and snow will be possible on Sunday with much cooler temps in place through the week ahead.
2022 Official Ice Out Dates
Hey - Look at that! More and more lakes are going ice out in the southern part of the state. However, thanks to a chillier than average month of April so far, several lakes are going out a little later than average. Cedar Lake, Lake Nokomis and Medicine Lake in the metro are officially out. According to the MN DNR, Lake Minnetonka went ice out on April 15th, 2 days later than normal (April 13th). Look for more ice outs over the coming days and weeks. It won't be long now before the land of 10,000 unfrozen lakes returns!
Average Ice Out Dates
We're still several weeks away from ice out across parts of the state, but according to the MN DNR, here's a look at the average ice out dates for lakes across the state. Note that some lakes across the southern part of the state typically see ice out around the end of March. Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April. A few lakes in far northern & northeastern MN don't see ice out until late April or early May.
Status of Spring
"April 18, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. In the East, spring leaf out is patchy this year, arriving days to weeks late across much of the Southeast and Midwest, and arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Parts of Maine are over a week early. In western states, spring leaf out is also patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom is also spreading north, arriving days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. The mid-Atlantic is patchy, several days early in some locations and several days late in others."
Sunday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Sunday shows much cooler temps in place with temps falling through the 40s through the day. West to southwesterly winds will be gusty making it feel cooler. There will also be more clouds with spits of rain possible, especially over northern MN.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temperature hovering around the upper 40s much of the day. Skies will also be cloudy through much of the day with areas of light rain and drizzle possible. West to southwesterly winds will be strong with gusts approaching 40mph at times.
Weather Outlook on Sunday
Temps around the region on Sunday will be quite a bit cooler than they were on Saturday. Highs in the Twin Cities will only warm into the lower 50s, which will be nearly -10F below average. Farther north and west, temps will only warm into the 30s, which will be nearly -20F below average. There will also be areas of rain and snow across northern Minnesota and North Dakota. Meanwhile the warm weather and thunderstorm potential will shift east toward Milwaukee and Chicago.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis into next week shows temps running well below average. The coldest days will be Monday and Tuesday with highs only warming into the 40s, which will be nearly -20F below average for the end of April.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows chilly temps in place through the last full week of April. We'll see gradually warming temps by the end of the week, but low/mid 50s is still below average by nearly -5F to -10F. Our next best chance of precipitation won't arrive until late week or next weekend.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite chilly through the last full week of April with highs running well below average. According to the ECMWF, we'll still be below average through the first few days of May. However, the GFS has us warming up considerably through the first full week of May. Stay tuned... We'll see what happens.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Cooler than average temps across across the northern tier of the nation with the coolest air hanging out around the Midwest and Great Lakes Region.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather across the Central US. The best chance of precipitation through early May will be in the Northwest and the Mid-Atlantic region.
Flashes of Warmth Amid Jacket Weather
By Paul Douglas
Just think of all the money we're saving on air conditioning, sunscreen and bug spray! The Reluctant Spring of '22 limps on, but yesterday was a welcome revelation. So THIS is what a warm front feels like. Complete with growls of thunder and an obligatory Tornado Watch.
The transition from winter to summer is always tenuous; waves of simmering warmth pushing farther north over time. A high sun angle heating air near the ground, while the upper atmosphere still suffers from a chilly wintry hangover. Resulting instability can spawn spinning thunderstorms capable of hail and tornadoes.
Big surprise: cooler winds return today with a few rain showers north of I-94 by afternoon. Not nearly as dramatic as the 2 feet of snow that just clocked far western North Dakota.
You won't be sweaty anytime soon: models keep us in the 40s and 50s but NOAA's GFS predicts 80s in 10-14 days. All or nothing.
But drought has eased. Sufficient water in our lakes and fields. No major river flooding. Insert deep sigh here.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Cloudy, windy. Rain north. Winds: SW 15-30. High: 49.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Winds: W 15-30. Low: 32.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a cold wind. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 37.
TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, still chilly. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 45.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 27. High: 49.
THURSDAY: Periods of rain. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 36. High: 48.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy and blah. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 58.
SATURDAY: Potential for more rain. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 42. High: 55.
This Day in Weather History
April 24th
1854: It feels like summertime at Ft. Snelling with temperatures in the 80s.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 24th
Average High: 62F (Record: 84F set in 1962)
Average Low: 41F (Record: 24F set in 1875)
Record Rainfall: 1.43" set in 1908
Record Snowfall: 0.3" set in 1902
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 24th
Sunrise: 6:12am
Sunset: 8:09pm
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 56 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 52 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 10 Minutes
Moon Phase for April 24th at Midnight
1.8 Days After Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows well above average temps in place along and east of the Mississippi River Valley with record highs possible in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, where isolated strong to severe storms will be possible.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the national weather outlook through early next week. A cold front will continue to push east through the Central US with showers and storms. Temps behind the front will turn much cooler than it was over the weekend.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the Central US with some of the heaviest in the Southern Plains. Meanwhile the Southwest will be completely dry.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through next week. Areas of heavy snow will continue across the High Plains through the weekend before fading early next week.
Climate Stories
"Don't Look Down - As permafrost thaws, the ground beneath Alaska is collapsing"
"Kathy Lenniger was running her dogsled team one day along her usual route in Fairbanks, Alaska, when she suddenly splashed into overflow, fresh water spilling on top of the snow. Surprised and chilled, she returned to the parking lot, where a lanky man was loading a sled with science equipment. Nicholas Hasson, it turned out, was studying thawing permafrost — research that could shed light on the streams and sinkholes that recently materialized around Lenniger's property and all around town. Lenniger lives in a log cabin in Goldstream Valley, a spruce-lined swale with a rolling view of the Northern Lights near Fairbanks. "It's the birthplace of American permafrost research, actually," said Hasson, a Ph.D. student at the nearby University of Alaska Fairbanks, or UAF. During World War II, the military feared the ribbons of dancing light were interfering with its radar, so Congress passed an act in 1946 establishing the Geophysical Institute at UAF. Soon, scientists were investigating the strange phenomena in the sky and drilling boreholes around Goldstream Valley to study the frozen ground beneath their feet."
"Ocean warming drove 10% rise in 'extreme' rainfall from Atlantic hurricanes in 2020"
"The Atlantic hurricane season – which runs from 1 June to 30 November – was the most active on record in 2020. Over the period, a total of 30 storms were named. Researchers have found that climate change caused a 0.6C rise in sea surface temperatures between 1850 and 2020. This extra energy "intensified" storms in the regions, they say. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record, featuring an unprecedented 30 named storms. The attribution study, published in Nature Communications, investigates the influence of climate change on extreme rainfall in the north Atlantic over the season. Between 1850 and 2020, climate change caused a 0.6C rise in sea surface temperatures in the north Atlantic Ocean, the study finds. The authors conclude that this extra energy "intensified" storms in the region, driving an increase in "extreme" rainfall of around 10%. "This isn't an end of the century thing that we have to worry about. We actually have to prepare our coastlines for the changes in these storms now," the lead author of the study tells Carbon Brief."
"Remnants of Halley's Comet will soon flash their way across the night sky"
"The comet is only viewable every 76 years, but you could soon catch sight of its glowing trail of debris. Comets don't get more famous than Halley's. As you may well know, it was named after Edmond Halley, who figured out that sightings of comets over Earth in 1531, 1607 and 1682 were probably all the same astronomical object returning to our skies at regular intervals. He correctly predicted that it would return in 1758, although he didn't live to see it himself. The last sighting of Halley's Comet was in 1986, and so sadly that means it won't be visible in the night sky until 2061. But here's some good news: on one night every year you can see the glowing trails of meteors – produced when the comet enters our solar system and sheds layers of ice and rock – flash across the night sky. This year the big night is May 5."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.