Twice this week, temperatures rose to record highs as January continues to get warmer in Minnesota.
January closed with two record high temps, as the first month of the year continues to heat up faster than any other in Minnesota
The average daily temperature across the state has warmed by 8.9 degrees from 1970 through 2024, the State Climatology Office said.
According to the National Weather Service Twin Cities, the mercury touched 52 degrees Thursday at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, breaking the previous record of 48 degrees set in 1989 and 1879. St. Cloud and Eau Claire, Wis., also saw records.
On Tuesday, temperatures at MSP hit 47 degrees, tying a record that had stood for 133 years.
At what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year in the Twin Cities, it’s ”hard to set record highs,” said Jonathan Erdman, a meteorologist with the Weather Channel. “They don’t come around every day.”
Even without record-breaking temperatures, Januarys are trending warmer in Minnesota. Since 1970, the average daily temperature across the state has increased by 8.9 degrees and low temperatures, on average, are 10.8 degrees higher than they were a half-century ago. January in Minnesota is now warming faster than any other month, said Pete Boulay with the Minnesota State Climatology Office.
Weather trackers have been rewriting the January record books more frequently in recent years. Since 2000, new high temperature records have been set on nine of the month’s 31 days, according to data from the Weather Channel.
Two of those marks were set just last year, when thermometers at the airport registered 50 degrees Jan. 29 and 55 degrees on Jan. 31 (a mark that withstood Friday’s high of 42).
“It’s kind of letting us down,” Boulay said, nodding to the fact that January typically is the state’s most brutal month for cold and snow. “The trend [for higher temperatures] has been going up in recent decades.”
Of course, the temperature will often sink below zero in January, as was the case for 66 consecutive hours at mid-month. The mercury fell to -19 in the Twin Cities for the first time since February 2021.
But unlike 50 years ago, the frequencies of minus-35-degree readings in northern Minnesota and minus-25-degree readings in the south have fallen by 90%. Those kinds of frigid temps don’t happen as often as in the past, Boulay said.
Conversely, January thaws — defined as two or more consecutive days with temps above 32 — have become common. At least one has happened for 14 straight years.
“We are more likely to have a January thaw than a white Christmas,” Boulay said.
A lack of extreme cold and a dearth of snow are big factors fueling the warmer weather. The Twin Cities usually receives 11 inches of snow in a typical January, but so far the metro has picked up only 9.8 inches for the season — about the same as New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle, which got dumped on earlier this month in a once-in-a-lifetime event. Only 1.7 inches has fallen this month at MSP, the official weather observation station for the Twin Cities.
Still, high temperature records are hard to come by in January because of bitter air or snow, and “we usually have one or the other,” Erdman said.
With bare ground in January 2024 and again this year, the sun doesn’t have to melt the snow before warming the air. With a sunny day and a strong south wind, temperatures can reach the 40s and 50s in January, Erdman said.
Warming trends elsewhere
Warmer winters are not just happening in Minnesota. Climate Central, which studies the impact of the changing climate, has found winter to be the fastest-warming season over the past 50 years in 185 of the 245 locations it analyzed in the United States. Most were in the Northeast, Southeast and Ohio Valley regions, disrupting snowfall patterns, Climate Central said.
Still, there is hope for fans rooting for a snowstorm and a cooldown. According to the National Weather Service, there is some chance of a small amount of snow north of Interstate 94 on Saturday afternoon and evening.
A shift in the weather pattern favors below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation for the first 11 days of February, the Climate Prediction Center said.
Average February snowfall in the metro is 9.5 inches, and daily highs for the period are in the mid-20s. About 45% of the metro’s annual snowfall happens between February and April, with about 22 inches falling annually, Erdman said.
So don’t pack up the shovels and parkas just yet.
“If you are a winter fan, there is hope,” Boulay said. “There is a lot of winter to go.”
An inch of snow Monday, with more Wednesday