Last Cold Day For A While. Much Warmer Ahead

It'll be a chilly Saturday, but spring fever will set in rapidly next week with highs warming into the 40s and 50s. A few communities along I-90 could even flirt with 60F! We have one more chilly day today with bright sun. A few flurries arrive tonight as we spring ahead 1 hour. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

March 12, 2022 at 3:30AM

Average Ice Out Dates

We're still several weeks away from ice out across the state, but according to the MN DNR, here's a look at the average ice out dates for lakes across the state. Note that some lakes across the southern part of the state typically see ice out around the end of March. Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April. A few lakes in far northern & northeastern MN don't see ice out until late April or early May.

Average Ice Out Dates (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Great Lakes Ice Coverage

According to NOAA's GLERL, 33% of the great lakes is considered ice covered. 53% of Lake Superior is ice covered.

Great Lakes Ice Coverage (NOAA GLERL/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Antarctic Sea Ice

"#AntarcticIce It's the time of year when Antarctic sea ice is at its minimum after summer and Arctic sea ice reaches its maximum extent after winter. Antarctic sea ice was record low. For the first time since the satellite record began in 1979, extent fell below 2 million square kilometers (772,000 square miles), reaching a minimum extent of 1.92 million square kilometers (741,000 square miles) on February 25, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC). The Antarctic sea ice is notable for its #variability, both #seasonally, losing over 80 percent of its ice cover from its maximum to its annual minimum extent, and from year to year. While 2022 had a record low minimum, the highest minimum in the satellite record was observed as recently as 2015. Average #Arctic sea ice extent for February 2022 was 14.61 million square kilometers (5.64 million square miles), ranking fourteenth lowest in the satellite record."

Antarctic Sea Ice (World Meteorological Organization/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"March 9, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. After a slow start to spring across much of the Southeast, spring is progressing more rapidly, arriving a few days to a week early in the southern Great Plains, the Southern Appalachians, and parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia. The Washington, D.C. area is 5-10 days early. In western states, spring leaf out is patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Spring bloom has also started to arrive in southern states, days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia and South Carolina."

Spring Leaf Index (NPN/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Few Clippers Dive Through

Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Wednesday. The first clipper dives through late Saturday into AM Sunday with some minor snow across the northern half of the state. The second clipper arrives late Monday with some minor accumulations and the last system arrives around midweek next week.

Weather Outlook From AM Saturday to AM Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Saturday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows cold and quiet weather in place for the day. Winds won't be quite as strong as they were on Friday, but will be strong enough to create chilly wind chills through much of the day. The best chance of light snow arrives late Saturday.

Saturday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday shows readings starting in the single digits below zero in the morning and will warm into the mid 20s later in the afternoon. Skies will becoming cloudier as a clipper arrives from the NW. Light snow will be possible later in the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wind Chill Values Saturday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Saturday will be very cold for mid March. Feels like temps will start around -15F in the morning and will warm into the teens above zero by the afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Saturday

Temps around the region on Saturday will still be quite cold with readings running nearly -5F to -15F below average for mid March. A clipper arrives late in the day with light snow chances across the northern half of the state.

Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

This was the snow depth as of Friday. Note that many locations across the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin still have close to a foot or more of snow. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities only has 3" on the ground.

Snow Depth As Of Friday Morning (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows highs running well below average on Saturday with temps nearly -15F below average. However, we'll quickly warm into the 40s on Sunday, which will be above average by a few degrees. However, on Tuesday, temps will flirt with 50F, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the week ahead shows quieter weather in place over the next several days. It'll be cold again Saturday, but we'll warm to near 50F by the middle part of next week, with chances of rain or sprinkles.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, it'll be chilly through Saturday, but above average temps return as we head into much of next week. Temps will almost be April-like a few days!

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across much of the nation. It'll feel quite nice after a cold end of the week & weekend ahead.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the eastern and northwestern part of the nation. Meanwhile, folks in the Southwest will be dry.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Last Cold Day For A While. Much Warmer Ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the Antarctic sea ice set a record low on February 25th. Keep in mind that it is summer in the southern hemisphere, so the sea ice tends to be lower at this time of the year. However, for the first time since the satellite record began in 1979, the sea ice extent fell below 2 million square miles.

Closer to home, NOAA's GLERL is reporting that nearly 33 percent of the Great Lakes are covered in ice. Lake Superior is 53 percent covered and slightly above the long term average.

According to the MN DNR, average ice out dates for lakes across the southern part of the state are around the last week of March. Meanwhile, Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April.

We're still several weeks out from official ice outs, but spring fever will set in rapidly next week with highs warming into the 40s and 50s. A few communities along I-90 could even flirt with 60F! We have one more chilly day today with bright sun. A few flurries arrive tonight as we spring ahead 1 hour.

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Winds: SSW 5-10. High: 28.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds, chance of flurries late. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 24.

SUNDAY: Spring ahead! Feeling much warmer. Winds: W 5-10. High: 42.

MONDAY: Light rain/snow mix early. Winds: NNE 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and spectacular. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 25. High: 51.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Sprinkle late? Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 55.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. Still mild. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 35. High: 50.

FRIDAY: More clouds. A Few rain showers. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 34. High: 46.

This Day in Weather History

March 12th

2009: The record low temperature for Minnesota for the month of March is set at -35. St. Cloud also sets a new daily record low of -15, breaking the previous record of -12 that was set in 1956. The high temperature in St. Cloud was also only 11 degrees on this date, which also set a new record for the low maximum temperature. This broke the previous record low maximum temperature of 12 degrees that was set in 1896.

1990: The temperature at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport hits a record-setting 69 degrees.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 12th

Average High: 39F (Record: 70F set in 2016)

Average Low: 23F (Record: -8F set in 1956)

Record Rainfall: 1.10" set in 1899)

Record Snowfall: 11.0" set in 1899

Twin Cities Almanac For March 12th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 12th

Sunrise: 6:30am

Sunset: 6:15pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 44 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 09 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 58 Minutes

Moon Phase for March 12th at Midnight

2.8 Days Since First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For March 12th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows well below average temps across the eastern half of the nation. Highs will be nearly -15F to -25F below average with record cold highs possible on Saturday from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley.

National Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions into the weekend shows a large area of low pressure sliding up the East Coast with strong to severe storms possible in the Southeastern US with areas of heavy rain. Heavy snowfall will develop in the Northeast with some double digit tallies possible.

Weather Outlook Through Sunday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found in the Southeastern US as well as the Northeastern part of the nation. There will also be some heavy stuff in the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through the weekend and into next week. Areas of heavy snow will be possible across the Northern New England States as well as the high elevations in the Western US.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Hurricanes, extreme weather linked to more U.S. deaths from several seemingly unrelated causes"

"The immediate impact of a major hurricane, tropical cyclone, or extreme storms are obvious. Homes and businesses disappear, and lives change forever. Now, a new international research project is revealing the hidden human costs of these weather events and climate-related disasters. Scientists from Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, Colorado State University, Imperial College London, and Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health report hurricanes and other U.S. tropical cyclones in recent decades contribute to an over 33-percent higher death rate from several major, seemingly unrelated causes in the months afterward."

"Weather In 'PERILS' - What Scientists Hope To Learn From Storms This Spring"

There is technically no such thing as "tornado season." A tornado can happen during any month of the year. As I write this on the morning of March 1st (the beginning of meteorological Spring), this period of time is also associated with a seasonal uptick in severe weather activity across parts of the United States. This Spring, scientists will engage in a new field campaign called PERILS (Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms). What is that and why is it important?

"In The Year 2080, Your City Will Feel Like It's 500 Miles Away"

"When you're older, your home town will feel different. That's true for everybody. But for people living today, the changes will be impossible to ignore. We usually measure climate change in terms of rising temperatures. But scientists say there's another way of thinking about it: spatial displacement. In a study from 2019, researchers found that cities in North America by the year 2080 will basically feel like they're about 500 miles (800 km) away from where they currently are – in terms of the drastic changes that are taking place in their climate. That's an average result – based on projections for 540 urban areas across the US and Canada – assuming carbon emissions stay on course at their current, dismal, business-as-usual rates. But this 500-mile trek isn't just a random city-hop in any random direction. It's almost universally headed south – where, in North America at least, places generally become hotter and wetter."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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