Flood Watch And Severe Storm Potential Through Thursday Night - Calmer Weekend Weather

We're tracking strong storms stretching from Litchfield to the north of the metro and into Wisconsin that are producing heavy rain, lots of lightning, and the occasional potential for hail and stronger wind gusts.

A Flood Watch has been issued through 4 AM Friday for the metro eastward into western Wisconsin for training thunderstorms that could produce 3-5" of rain through the evening into the overnight hours across the region.

_______________________________________________

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended south into the heart of the metro by the National Weather Service. The watch is still in place through 9 PM Thursday.

ORIGINAL POST BELOW

_______________________________________________

Strong To Severe Storms Thursday Afternoon Into Overnight

As we head through the rest of Thursday into Thursday Night, we are tracking the likelihood of severe weather - especially in the eastern half of the state and into Wisconsin. Storms as they form and move through will be capable of very large hail (2"+ in diameter), destructive winds (potentially 75+ mph gusts), and up toward where that Enhanced Risk is an isolated tornado threat. The severe threat includes the metro, where the best timing for storms appears to be from about the dinner hour to potentially around midnight.

Already as of mid-afternoon Thursday, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch had been issued across portions of central and eastern Minnesota until 9 PM. The watch - which includes St. Cloud, Brainerd, and Duluth - cautions about a few tornadoes, hail up to 3" in diameter, and wind gusts to 70 mph.

_______________________________________________

_______________________________________________

I feel like I'm saying the same thing week to week when we look at the latest Drought Monitor release, but once again we have seen an increase in the amount of the state under drought conditions in the past week. While the worst category in place (D3 - Extreme Drought) did not see any changes, 80.32% of Minnesota is now under at least D1 Moderate Drought, and 29.66% is under D2 Severe Drought - both up since last week.

Despite the rain that we saw from Tuesday last week through Tuesday this morning, we only saw the drought stay steady or worsen across the state over the past week.

This is the rainfall anomaly over the past 60 days (through Wednesday morning) across the region. Note that this does include the 2-3"+ that fell between the Minnesota River and I-94 Tuesday Night which is NOT included in this week's drought update (where the cut-off is 7 AM Tuesday). However, this does show that many areas of the state are running several inches below average.

_______________________________________________

As we head into Friday, we will be watching the potential of more showers and storms which could delay play at the 3M Open. While a storm or two could still be around early in the morning, the better chance of storms on Friday will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Warm morning temperatures in the low 70s give way to highs in the mid to upper 80s - cooler than Thursday, but still feeling like the low 90s.

Another round of showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening across the state on Friday with a frontal boundary in place. A few could be severe - more on that below. Cooler temperatures are in place behind one frontal boundary that will have already moved south, but it'll still be a warm day in southern Minnesota as highs climb to near 90F. Up north, 60s along the North Shore and 70s elsewhere are expected.

Forecast loop between 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

Here's a look at the timing of the potential storms Friday afternoon. A few of these storms could end up being severe.

While a greater threat of severe weather exists south of the state on Friday, the southern third of Minnesota is still under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for the potential of hail and wind.

_______________________________________________

As we head toward the weekend and early next week, highs will be much closer to normal here in the metro in the low to mid-80s. Mainly sunny skies are expected each day, but an isolated storm can't be ruled out Sunday Night.

_______________________________________________

We will see another round of heat as we head into the middle of next week - but it doesn't look like what we have seen this week. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be up around 90F before falling back off a few degrees (again, closer to average) by the first weekend of August.

_______________________________________________

Trending More Comfortable Into The Weekend
By Paul Douglas

Good news: today will not feel as jungle-like as it did yesterday. No Orlando, Dubai or New Delhi with lakes. It will not be a 2-shower day. Yesterday the metro heat index was 105 to 110F; probably the hottest day of the year and the 19th day of 90+ readings at MSP in 2023. A stray T-shower may pop today but nothing like yesterday's fireworks.

Predicting the future is always problematic, but the current El Nino, with water temperatures 6-12F warmer than average, may be comparable to 1983 and 1997. I suspect we'll see a few 90s well into September, and the upcoming winter won't look anything like last winter. If previous El Nino phases are a guide, it should be significantly milder, with more rain and ice events. We'll see.

I expect less flashing and splashing (and running and screaming) today as cooler air pushes south out of Canada on a fresh northeast breeze. Expect sunshine this weekend with 70s and low 80s. A breath of fresh air. Well, potentially smoky, but comfortably-smoggy. What a summer.

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Few clouds, stray T-storm. Wake up 72. High 88. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NE 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny, breezy and comfortable: Wake up 65. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Wake up 63. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Warm sunshine, risk of smoke. Wake up 64. High 86. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase, sticky again. Wake up 68. High 88. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Some sunshine, muggy. Wake up 71. High 91. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Dog Days. Passing T-storm? Wake up 72. High 92. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 28th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 50 minutes, and 40 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 14 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Sunlight? August 17th (13 hours, 59 minutes, 17 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:30 PM? August 8th (8:30 PM)
_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
July 28th

1987: Heavy rain falls at La Crosse, WI, where 5 inches are recorded.

_______________________________________________

Showers and storms are expected across the northern and eastern portions of the nation on Friday, as well as along the Gulf Coast. The July heatwave continues from the Southwest to the East Coast.

The heaviest rain through the first half of the weekend will be in the Northeast, where 3"+ of rain could fall in portions of New England.

_______________________________________________

July 2023 is set to be the hottest month on record

More from the World Meteorological Organization: "According to ERA5 data from the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record and the month is on track to be the hottest July and the hottest month on record. These temperatures have been related to heatwaves in large parts of North America, Asia and Europe, which along with wildfires in countries including Canada and Greece, have had major impacts on people's health, the environment and economies. « We don't have to wait for the end of the month to know this. Short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July 2023 will shatter records across the board, » said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. « According to the data released today, July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year, » Mr Guterres told journalists at UN headquarters in New York."

Here's what limits Biden on heat waves

More from E&E News: "President Joe Biden plans to announce new government measures Thursday to deal with extreme heat as more than a third of the U.S. population has been under alert for dangerous temperatures in the past week. Yet any effort to expand federal activities to address the risks of heat waves could collide with laws and regulations that limit the government's ability to help overheated communities. Federal law doesn't consider extreme heat a disaster, unlike tornadoes, hurricanes or wildfires. Heat-mitigation programs such as opening public cooling centers and rebuilding facilities to be more heat-resistant are handled by states, counties and municipalities, sometimes with federal expertise and cash."

New York, LA, Chicago and Houston, the Nation's Four Largest Cities, Are Among Those Hardest Hit by Heat Islands

More from Inside Climate News: "Chicago is not known for its blistering temperatures like, say, Phoenix, which is experiencing a relentless stretch of 100-degree days this month. But a recent report analyzing temperature disparities within cities found that Chicago was among the cities with the largest population living in urban heat islands, above San Antonio, San Diego and Phoenix. Urban heat islands are pockets of a city that absorb and retain heat more than surrounding areas due to dense concentrations of pavement, buildings and other urban features and limited natural land cover to reduce temperatures. Five cities—New York, Houston, Los Angeles, Dallas and Chicago—are home to the highest percentage of the population living in areas with temperatures elevated by at least eight degrees Fahrenheit, according to the analysis by Climate Central of the urban heat island effect in 44 U.S. cities. A dozen of the cities studied, including Chicago, have a proportion of their population living in areas with an urban heat island index of 12 degrees, meaning they are that much hotter than the cities' baseline temperatures."

_______________________________________________

Follow me on:

Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser