Slight Drought Improvement - Subzero Wind Chills On The Way

Mostly cloudy conditions will continue as we head into Friday, but we won't see the snow chances like we have the past several days (at least during the day). Fairly steady temperatures are expected in the mid-teens, but with stronger wind gusts it'll feel closer to 0F.

Peak wind gusts across the state are expected to top 20 mph as we head through Friday - nearing 30 mph out in western Minnesota.

A cloudy day is expected statewide with highs that will be in the teens. The warmest areas of the state will actually be along the North Shore, where some 20s can be expected.

As we head into Friday Night and early Saturday some more snow showers will move across portions of the state. In general, this will bring up to a half inch in areas where snow does fall. With cold temperatures still in place, anywhere that it snows could see slippery road conditions Saturday morning.

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The snow chance will mainly be early in the day Saturday in the metro, but if you're heading to the Gophers game make sure to bundle in many layers! Highs will only be in the mid-teens on Saturday, and with winds gusting up above 30 mph it'll feel right around 0F (if not subzero) throughout the day. Warmer weather with a mix of sun and clouds will move in as we head toward Sunday and Monday. We'll also start to see a decrease in our winds as we head into early next week.

Here's a look at peak wind gusts for the next several days. Those 20-35 mph wind gusts will lead to brisk weather on both Friday and Saturday before gradually decreasing into the second half of the weekend.

Wind chills at or near subzero are expected as we head through Friday into early Sunday, so make sure you're bundling up heading out to the deer stand (Wisconsin deer opener is this weekend), to the Gophers game, or (in general) heading outside period.

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Good news if you're heading out of town early next week here in the Twin Cities - the weather shouldn't at least impact your departure (your arrival city weather may vary depending on where you are going!). Through Wednesday I think we'll be dry here in the metro with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the low 30s. Traveling on Thanksgiving Day? That may be a little bit trickier as models are hinting at some snow somewhere around the upper Midwest with a clipper. Exact details (including track and amounts) are to be determined... we can all hope it avoids us though so there are no issues going over the river and through the woods to Grandmother's house!

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Good news! The rain we saw last week and the snow early this week that made it in before the Tuesday morning cutoff helped to improve the drought slightly across the state! Only 77.4% of the state is now at least abnormally dry - down from 84.9% last week. Meanwhile, looking at the worst drought category that is in place across the state (Extreme), ~4.9% of the state is still under it, stretching from the Twin Cities metro to near Marshall and Slayton.

While the precipitation has been beneficial, we are still WAY below average for the year and season in the Twin Cities. At over 9" below average, it is the 21st driest year-to-date on record for MSP. We also sit at the 7th driest meteorological fall (since September 1st) on record. We have a long way to go to get out of the drought - one of which we may not see too much more improvement on until the spring due to the ground freezing up over the winter.

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Slight Drought Improvement - Subzero Wind Chills
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

With our recent rainfall (nearly an inch last week), and some of the snow early this week, there was some slightly good news in the latest Drought Monitor. All active drought categories across Minnesota saw a 2% to 7.5% decrease. However, extreme drought (the second worst category) still covered about 4.9% of the state, stretching from the Twin Cities metro to near Marshall and Slayton.

This slight reduction in the drought comes as Twin Cities precipitation remains over 9" below average since January 1st (21st driest year-to-date), about 11" below average since June 1st (4th driest), and near 4.5" below average since September 1st (7th driest).

One word can describe the next couple of days: BRR. Highs will only be in the teens today and Saturday with a chance of some light snow tonight into early Saturday. Factoring in windy conditions, it'll feel more like the single digits today, dipping subzero at times tonight through Saturday Night. Sunnier, warmer weather returns Sunday into early next week.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Windy. Overnight snow. Wake up 15. High 19. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Passing flurries. Wind chill near 0F. Wake up 14. High 19. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY: Warmer. Sunny start, late PM clouds. Wake up 6. High 31. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 10-15 mph.

MONDAY: More clouds than sun, but dry. Wake up 17. High 30. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Wake up 17. High 32. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. No pre-holiday travel concerns. Wake up 22. High 34. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

THANKSGIVING THURSDAY: Some snow-covered turkeys possible. Wake up 24. High 30. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 18th

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 26 minutes, and 28 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 14 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Daylight?: December 3rd (8 hours, 59 minutes, 4 seconds)
*Latest Sunrise: December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 5th-December 13th (4:31 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
November 18th

1994: 58 to 69 mph wind gusts result in isolated damage to structures across south central and southeastern Minnesota. Some of the counties included were Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Le Sueur, Nicollet, Rice, Steele, and Waseca.

1979: A heat wave continues in Southwest Minnesota. The temperature hits 70 degrees at Browns Valley.

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The big story on Friday will be the continued lake effect snow around the Great Lakes. Otherwise, an area of low pressure in the southern United States will bring some rain chances to the region.

Literal feet of snow are expected to accumulate through the weekend downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, including in and around the Buffalo metro. Probably a good idea for the NFL to move the Sunday Bills game out of Buffalo, even if it would have been fun to see all that snow!

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Climate Change Contributed to Deadly West African Floods, Scientists Find

More from the New York Times: "Heavy rains that led to recent deadly floods in Nigeria and neighboring countries were made about 80 times more likely by human caused climate change, scientists said Wednesday. The floods, which killed more than 600 people in Nigeria and more than 200 in Niger and Chad, were the consequence of an extremely wet rainy season. The scientists, from a loose-knit coalition called World Weather Attribution, also said climate change had made the season, which runs from April to October, 20 percent wetter overall than it would have been in a world without warming. The findings come as negotiators are meeting in Egypt at the U.N. climate summit, with the issue of "loss and damage" — whether industrialized countries should pay less-developed nations for the effects of climate change — high on the agenda. Nigeria and many other African countries produce relatively little carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to warming yet increasingly suffer from climate-related disasters like floods and heat waves."

Clean energy and climate are poised to take priority in new DFL-controlled Minnesota Legislature

More from the Sahan Journal: "Legislators and clean-energy advocates are planning to pass an ambitious climate agenda now that Democrats won control of the Minnesota Legislature and the governor's office in last week's election. The Democratic caucus in the House has several climate initiatives it hopes to update, pass in the Senate, and send to Governor Tim Walz next year. Some are geared at helping low-income neighborhoods of color that experience higher pollution levels transition to clean energy. Others will seek to update standards for the first time since 2007. "The top priority will be the 100 percent clean energy bill," Representative Jamie Long, DFL-Minneapolis, told Sahan Journal."

Heat pumps come to the rescue in Europe's energy crisis

More from Semafor: "Faced with the worst energy crisis in recent history, the United Kingdom and Europeans are turning in droves to a technology that has been around for decades: the humble heat pump. But even as sales have surged, they are running into a basic problem: not enough people know how to install them. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the resulting skyrocketing costs in energy, and an avalanche of subsidies, have spurred homeowners across Europe to buy heat pumps for their energy needs as a lower-cost alternative to natural gas boilers to heat their water and home Europe is expected to reach a total of 45 million residential heat pump installations by 2030, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. The device will play a key role in the European Commission's approximately $550 billion plan to overhaul its electricity grid. Meanwhile, the U.K. is set to ban gas boilers in newly built homes from 2025."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser