Spring is coming, believe it or not

At this point most of us would be thrilled to see average temperatures. Such shall be the case with (consistent) 60s from Wednesday into mid-May, with a risk of 70 degrees by Mother's Day. The end is near. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

May 1, 2022 at 2:56AM

April Weather Summary So Far

Here's the Twin Cities weather summary for April. We finished nearly -6.0F below average, which is the 14th coldest April on record. With yesterday's rain, we finished more than +1.00 above average in terms of precipitation, which is the 16th wetted April on record, but nearly -2.0" below average in terms of snowfall.

April Weather Summary (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

2022 Official Ice Out Dates

Hey - Look at that! More and more lakes are going ice out in the southern part of the state. However, thanks to a chillier than average month of April so far, several lakes are going out a little later than average. Cedar Lake, Lake Nokomis and Medicine Lake in the metro are officially out. According to the MN DNR, Lake Minnetonka went ice out on April 15th, 2 days later than normal (April 13th). Look for more ice outs over the coming days and weeks. It won't be long now before the land of 10,000 unfrozen lakes returns!

2022 Ice Outs (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Average Ice Out Dates

We're still several weeks away from ice out across parts of the state, but according to the MN DNR, here's a look at the average ice out dates for lakes across the state. Note that some lakes across the southern part of the state typically see ice out around the end of March. Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April. A few lakes in far northern & northeastern MN don't see ice out until late April or early May.

Average Ice Out Dates (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"April 25, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. In the East, spring leaf out is patchy this year, arriving days to weeks late across much of the Southeast and upper Midwest, and arriving days to weeks early across the southern part of the Midwest, the Southern Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. Parts of Maine are over a week early. In western states, spring leaf out is also patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Parts of Montana and South Dakota are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom is also spreading north, arriving days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. The mid-Atlantic is patchy, several days early in some locations and several days late in others."

Spring Leaf Index (NPN/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Sunday shows areas of light rain lingering across the region with cool temps and breezy WNW winds.

Sunday Weather Outlook For The Twin Cities (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temperature hovering in the 40s much of the day. Clouds and showers will be possible early in the day. WNW wind gusts will be around 20mph to 25mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Sunday

Temps around the region on Sunday will be cooler than average with temps running well below average. We'll also have clouds and light rain showers lingering.

Weather Outlook on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis into the early part of May shows temps still running well below average with readings running nearly -5F to -15F below average.

5 Day temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows chilly temps in place through the the early part of May. Rain chances will be possible through next week as well. However, it does appear that temps will warm to near 60F by the 2nd half of next week!

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite chilly into the first full week of May. However, according to the GFS, we may see highs in the 80s by mid May.

EMWF Extended Temperature Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Cooler than average temps across across the western US. The southern US will warm to above average levels.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows a better chance of active weather in the High Plains and parts of the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Spring Is Coming - No Really!
By Paul Douglas

My canned answers to various forms of weather-heckling are becoming more plaintive and pathetic. "Well at least the drought is over!" or "Hey, crap-weather makes it easier to focus on work!" To my new daughter in law who just moved to Minnesota: "Springs aren't usually THIS awful!" Ohpuh-leeze. It's getting harder to smile through gritted teeth.

Cloudy, windy and chilly - rinse and repeat.

At this point most of us would be thrilled to see average temperatures. Such shall be the case with (consistent) 60s from Wednesday into mid-May, with a risk of 70 degrees by Mother's Day. The end is near. Spring is horridly-late, but it's coming.

Spiral bands of heavy showers and T-storms on Saturday, with a storm tracking right over Minnesota, was an out of body experience, with 1-2" rainfall amounts statewide. More water in our lakes.

Showers track south of Minnesota Tuesday and Friday, and next weekend may be worth the wait with sunscreen, green lawns, chirping birds and a 99% chance of euphoria, statewide.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Cool and gray with rain. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 49.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: WNW 10-15. Low: 41.

MONDAY: Clouds give way to some sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 53.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 38. High: 54.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and spectacular. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 34. High: 61.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine, few complaints. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 41. High: 66.

FRIDAY: Blue sky, making up for lost time. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 46. High: 70.

SATURDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 45 High: 71.

This Day in Weather History

May 1st

1966: Winter makes a last stab at Minnesota with a low of 5 at Cook. A widespread freeze hits the rest of the state.

1935: An unusually late snow and ice storm hits east central Minnesota. The heaviest ice accumulations are between St. Paul and Forest Lake and westward to Buffalo in Wright County, with accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches on wires. The downtown Minneapolis weather bureau records 3 inches of snow.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

May 1st

Average High: 65F (Record: 91F set in 1959)

Average Low: 44F (Record: 24F set in 1909)

Record Rainfall: 1.26" set in 1983

Record Snowfall: 3.0" set in 1935

Twin Cities Almanac For May 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

May 1st

Sunrise: 6:01am

Sunset: 8:18pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 16 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 43 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 30 Minutes

Moon Phase for May 1st at Midnight

1.4 Days Since New Moon

Moon Phase For April 30th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Sunday

The weather outlook on Sunday shows above average temps in the Southern US with strong to severe storms possible across western Texas.

Weather Outlook on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Here's the national weather outlook through early next week, which shows unsettled weather in place across the nation. Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible in the Central US with snow potential in the Rockies.

Weather Outlook Through Tuesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the Central U. Meanwhile the Southwest will be completely dry.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through next week. Areas of heavy snow will continue across the Rockies and into Canada.

Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"We'll Likely Deal With More Pandemics as Earth Heats Up"

"As climate change permanently alters our environment, the world is increasingly opening up to new viruses—with potentially deadly consequences for us humans. A study published Thursday in Nature finds that as climate change is forcing animals to move habitats, they will increasingly come into contact with humans, and with each other, creating more and more opportunities for deadly viruses to mutate and spill over to people. "Species are going to have to move if they want to track shifting climates," Colin Carlson, the study's lead author and an assistant research professor at Georgetown University Medical Center, said in an email. "When they do, they'll meet for the first time and share viruses. Our simulations suggest that in the next half-century, this process will completely restructure the global mammal-virus network. That's bad news for human health."

"How to survive a heatwave"

"On colour-coded temperature charts, the Indian subcontinent is currently a sickly mauve. With summer still months away, an unusually intense heatwave is threatening millions of people there. Temperatures are expected to exceed 48°C on the border between Pakistan and India this week. A month ago, the heat broke a 122-year-old record. What can people do to weather the worst and prepare for a future of extreme heat? For many Indians and Pakistanis, particularly in rural areas, the intolerable heat will slash the valuable hours available to work outdoors. According to research published by the Lancet, more than 150 billion work hours were lost in 2018 due to extreme temperature and humidity. This trend will have global consequences."

"Heat wave escalates in India and Pakistan"

"An intense heat wave is bringing temperatures of 104°F (40°C) or greater to nearly 1 billion people in India and Pakistan, with records threatened each day through the weekend. Why it matters: Extreme heat can be deadly. An increase in the intensity, duration and occurrence of extreme heat events has been tied to climate change, including trends in India specifically. By the numbers: On Thursday, temperatures reached 117.5°F (47.5°C) in Nawabshah, Pakistan — the hottest temperature on record in the Northern Hemisphere so far this year. Delhi saw a high of 110.3°F (43.5°C) Thursday. Forecasts for Jacobabad, Pakistan, call for temperatures to reach or eclipse 120°F (48.9°C) during the next three days. What's next: The Indian Meteorological Service has issued heat alerts through the weekend for a large portion of the country, while Pakistan's weather agency is warning of flooding from rapidly melting glaciers in high elevations."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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