Warming Trend Into Early October - Ian Makes Landfall In Florida

It was a frosty morning in many locations across Minnesota Wednesday morning, with some even seeing their first freeze (32° or below) of the season. The coldest airport temperature across the state was in Hibbing which dropped to 24°. Some COOP observers reported even colder temperatures:

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While we don't dip as low as we did Wednesday morning, it'll be another cool start Thursday with morning lows in the low 40s and mainly clear skies. Temperatures will rise into the mid-60s for highs with just a few clouds around at times.

The warmest weather on Thursday will be in western Minnesota, where highs will reach the low 70s. Most of the rest of the state will be in the 60s, but some 50s will be possible in the Arrowhead and along the North Shore. Mainly sunny skies are expected statewide.

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It's going to be a sunny and relatively warm weekend in the metro, with highs in the low 70s Friday through Sunday. In other words - not much to complain about weatherwise for the first full weekend of October! Winds will be breeziest on Friday - out of the southeast at 5-15 mph.

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With no expected rainfall over the next couple of days, we should end September as the driest on record in the metro. Only 0.23" of rain has fallen at MSP, which will beat the record of 0.27" set back in 1882.

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The fall colors are really starting to pop out there across the state, especially in northern and western areas. Numerous state parks in those areas are reporting 25-50% color. Moose Lake State Park on Wednesday reported: "As you hike, you will see reds, oranges and yellows poking out among the dulling green forest. Maples, birch and aspens are starting to showcase their changing colors more and more each day." You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

Here's a handy map of typical peak fall colors from the MN DNR. This ranges from mid/late September in far northern Minnesota to mid-October in southern parts of the state.

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An Historic Hurricane For Southwest Florida
By Paul Douglas

Every hurricane is uniquely frustrating, and Ian was no exception. Since Saturday the track has shifted southward down the coast of Florida, only to make landfall as the strongest hurricane to hit the US since Michael in 2018. In fact, Hurricane Ian is only the 5th hurricane on record to strike the US with 155+ mph winds.

Data shows that many people who survive the initial storm perish days or weeks after landfall, due to freak accidents, electrocution and chronic health issues magnified by stress. Post-hurricane depression can linger for years. Our thoughts are with our friends and family in southwest Florida this morning.

After a frosty Wednesday morning, temperatures slowly mellow in the coming days, with daytime highs near 70F from Friday into early next week. An isolated T-shower is possible Friday, again Sunday, but I don't see a soaking rain into late next week.

PS: Ian's mad romp isn't over. It will move into the Atlantic and make a second landfall near Savannah or Charleston on Friday. Good grief.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 41. High 66. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Lukewarm sun, stray shower. Wake up 51. High 69. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake up 50. High 70. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: More clouds, few showers nearby. Wake up 55. High 65. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind E 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 50. High 71. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: A few showers in the area. Wake up 52. High 70. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Showers taper off. Wake up 54. High 65. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 29th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 48 minutes, and 20 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 11 Hours Of Daylight?: October 15th (10 hours, 59 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7:30 AM?: October 16th (7:30 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 6:30 PM?: October 14th (6:29 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
September 29th

1876: An abnormally cool day occurs, with a high of 45 in the Twin Cities (normally the high should be 65 this time of year).

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After reaching winds of 155 mph earlier in the day Wednesday, Ian made landfall with slightly lower winds around 3:05 PM ET. It was a Category 4 hurricane at landfall with 150 mph winds. It essentially made landfall in the same spot that Hurricane Charley did back in 2004.

Ian will continue to track across Florida Wednesday night into Thursday, slowly weakening as it does so. Even while it is weakening, it will bring catastrophic flooding and damaging winds across the Florida Peninsula and a devastating storm surge along the coast. It will emerge into the Atlantic Thursday night, recurring northward into South Carolina as a tropical storm on Friday.

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Ian will continue to impact the Southeast on Thursday with high winds and flooding rains. Elsewhere, a system out west will produce storms and some higher elevation snow mixed in.

The heaviest rain through the end of the week will be in Florida where at least one to two feet of rain could fall courtesy of Ian. Surrounding that in the Southeast, at least 3-9" of rain could fall.

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Ian smashes into southwest Florida with historic force

More from Yale Climate Connections: "Hurricane Ian powered ashore along the southwest Florida coast at Cayo Costa Island at 3:05 p.m. EDT September 28 as a category 4 storm with 150-mph winds, tying as the fifth-strongest hurricane on record to make a contiguous U.S. landfall. The mighty hurricane's winds, storm surge, and flooding rain are all expected to cause catastrophic damage, and Ian will go down in history as one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Ian was pushing a catastrophic storm surge along its right side into the southwest Florida coast as it charged ashore. Winds circulating around Ian pushed water offshore late Tuesday night, but the flow quickly switched to onshore Wednesday morning, triggering sharp rises in water. The storm surge will peak on Wednesday afternoon, with the timing of peak inundation modulated to some extent by the astronomical tides. Storm surge will continue well into Wednesday evening, as Ian pulls northward and southwest winds continue to funnel water into the southwest-facing coastline and bays."

Astronomers May Have Spotted the Remnants of One of the Earliest Stars

More from Gizmodo: "A team of astronomers studying the gas surrounding a distant quasar believe it may carry remnants of one of the universe's first stars. The first stars are known as Population III stars (the three star populations were named in the order they were observed, so the Population III stars are counterintuitively the earliest). These oldest stars are hypothetical at the moment and presumed long gone, as they would have been hundreds of times the mass of the Sun and would have burned out quickly."

Gas station owners, charging companies oppose Xcel Energy's electric vehicle charging plan

More from Energy News Network: "A coalition of retailers and charging station companies is objecting to a proposal by Xcel Energy to install hundreds of high-speed public charging stations across its Minnesota territory. Xcel Energy asked state regulators last month for permission to spend $170 million on a rapid expansion of charging infrastructure to help the state meet its goal of electrifying 20% of light duty vehicles by 2030. The utility said "range anxiety" will remain a barrier to that goal until drivers have enough charging options — it projects a need for 8,300 public fast-charging ports statewide by the end of the decade. Fewer than 100 exist today."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser