First Hints Of El Nino Showing Up?
A morning shower gives way to a drier wind whipping up later today. Thursday brings a little rain over southern MN with some snow up north. Friday will be the chilliest day statewide with metro highs near 40F. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
During November, Minneapolis typically experiences a higher frequency of cloudy days compared to other months. With the onset of late fall, cloud cover increases, and the city encounters a greater number of overcast days. The average cloud cover during this time tends to be notably higher, leading to fewer hours of direct sunlight and a generally subdued, gray sky. This increased cloudiness often coincides with the gradual transition to the colder winter months, creating a perceptible shift in the city's atmosphere and weather patterns.
Weather Outlook Through Midday Thursday
Here's the simulated radar through midday Thursday, which shows areas of precipitation moving through the state, including some snowfall, especially across the northern part of the state. There could be some minor accumulations lingering into Thursday with gusty winds as well. Wind Gusts on Thursday could approach 30mph to 40mph for some across the region.
Snowfall Outlook
Here's the snowfall outlook through Thursday, which shows some minor accumulations across the Arrowhead. Some folks could be shoveling / plowing in those areas through midweek.
Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through early next week, shows very minimal precipitation across much of the state. The heaviest will be in the Arrowhead through midweek this week, some of which will be in the form of accumulating snow.
Precipitation Over The Last 60 Days
Extraordinary levels of rainfall have been witnessed in various regions of the state since September 23rd. Remarkably, specific areas in the vicinity of the Twin Cities, delineated in white and blue, have received nearly 10 inches or more of precipitation in just over a month.
60 Day Precipitation Anomaly
Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 60 days. Some of the biggest surpluses are showing up in blue in pockets across parts of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and into western Wisconsin. It has been a very soggy last 7 weeks.
Drought Update
Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with more than 50% under a moderate drought (or worse). Nearly 96% of the state is still abnormally dry, but there have been improvements over the last 3 months.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, November 8th will still be very warm for this time of the year with readings warming into the lower 50s. This will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Skies will be cloudier throughout much of the day as well.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the lower 40s in the morning and will warm into the lower 50s by the afternoon. Highs will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Southerly winds will be around 5-10mph through the first half of the day and will increase to 15mph to 20mph out of the west.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday will be quite mild across much of the state with highs running nearly +5F to +10F above average for many locations. There could be some lingering rain and snow showers across the northern and northeastern part of the state with increasing winds later in the day.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows mild temperatures on Wednesday with a bit of a cool down as we approach the end of the week and weekend ahead. By Sunday, temperatures will warm back into the 50s once again, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for mid November.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows a bit of a cool down as we head into the end of the week and weekend ahead with readings dipping into the low and mid 40s. Temperatures on Sunday and into next week look to warm back into the 50s as we approach mid month.
The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be quite a bit warmer than average as we approach the middle part of the month. Readings could warm into the mid/upper 50s, which will be well above average for that time of the year. Overnight lows could be in the low/mid 40s, which is closer to our average highs for this time of the year.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Winding Down
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. November is typically a very quiet month, but there can still be storms. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across the Central US will be fairly quiet over the next several days. A storm system will bring a little snow to the International Border near Canada and there will also be some heavier rain across the Southern US, but for the most part, the Midwest will be dry over the next several days.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the nation, especially across the Midwest and Great Lakes.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across more of the nation as we approach the middle part of the month and beyond.
First Hints Of El Nino Showing Up?
By Paul Douglas
Here in the Land of Low Weather Expectations temperatures close to 60F in mid-November are kind of a big deal. Considering we could easily be butt-deep in snow with subzero windchills.
We may be witnessing some of the early effects of the strongest El Nino warm phase of the Pacific Ocean since 2015-16. In fact nearly all of the world's ocean basins are running warmer than normal.
El Nino winters bring more rain (and chill) to the southern US with a milder, drier bias for Minnesota and more ice and mixed rain-snow events. I still suspect the upcoming winter won't look anything like last year.
A morning shower gives way to a drier wind whipping up later today. Thursday brings a little rain over southern MN with some snow up north. Friday will be the chilliest day statewide with metro highs near 40F.
Models hint at a little rain Saturday night, with a big ridge of high pressure setting up over the central US next week. Maybe 5+ day of 50s? ECMWF predicts 60F next Wednesday. Welcome to "November Lite".
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Early shower, then dry. Winds: SW 8-13. High 52.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Winds: WNW 10-15. Low: 36.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Winds: W 15-30. High 47.
FRIDAY: Patchy clouds, brisk. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 33. High 41.
SATURDAY: Sunny start, nighttime showers. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 35. High 44.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 39. High: 50.
MONDAY: Mild sun, a stiff breeze. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up: 38. High: 55.
TUESDAY: Hello October. Clouds increase. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 43. High: 57.
This Day in Weather History
November 8th
1999: A November 'heat wave' impacts much of the state. Temperatures in the 70's and 80's are recorded in Minnesota with records shattered in many places. The Twin Cities had 73 degrees, while Canby saw 82.
1943: A severe ice storm hits the Twin Cities, and heavy snow falls over southwest Minnesota. One person died in St. Paul as a trolley car slid off the tracks and hit a pole. A Minneapolis man died shoveling snow. Many telephone poles were down due to the ice. Places like Worthington, Windom, and Marshall saw 14 to 16 inches of snow.
1870: The first storm warning for the Great Lakes is issued by the U.S. Army.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 8th
Average High: 46F (Record: 77F set in 1999)
Average Low: 31F (Record: 1F set in 1991)
Record Rainfall: 1.51" set in 1932
Record Snowfall: 8.5" set in 1943
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 18th
Sunrise: 7:00am
Sunset: 4:52pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 51 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 36 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 56 Minutes
Moon Phase for November 8th at Midnight
3.1 Days Before Last Quarter
National High Temps on Wednesday
The weather outlook across the Central US shows record warmth across parts of the Central & Southeastern US on Wednesday. Highs will warm into the 80s, which will be nearly 10F to 20F above average.
National Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows areas of rain/snow around the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Much of the rest of the nation remains dry.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows areas of light rain/snow drifting across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, another batch of heavier rains will be possible in the Southern US. There will also be another batch of heavier precipitation developing in the Pacific Northwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavier rain across the Southern US and decent precipitation along the West Coast. However, much of the Central and High Plains and Midwest will be fairly dry.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some decent snowfall along the international border and just north into Canada.
Climate Stories
"Meet the former pilot working to reduce climate pollution from planes"
Todd Smith always wanted to fly. But shortly after becoming a pilot and achieving his lifelong dream, he fell ill. During his required time off, he learned about the consequences of climate change and how the airline industry is a major polluter. So Smith cofounded Safe Landing, an organization for current and former airline employees who want to protect the climate and safeguard jobs for industry workers. Yale Climate Connections talked with Smith about his journey and about how airline workers are pushing for a cleaner industry. Yale Climate Connections: Can you start by telling us what you love about flying and a little bit about your background as a pilot? Smith: I was inspired by an air show and from the age of five, my dream was always to fly. And after five years of training and two years working as a flying instructor, I got my break into the airline industry with a UK company called Thomas Cook, and I spent three years primarily flying medium-haul around Europe, sometimes to Africa.
"How global warming shakes the Earth: Seismic data show ocean waves gaining strength as the planet warms"
As oceans waves rise and fall, they apply forces to the sea floor below and generate seismic waves. These seismic waves are so powerful and widespread that they show up as a steady thrum on seismographs, the same instruments used to monitor and study earthquakes. That wave signal has been getting more intense in recent decades, reflecting increasingly stormy seas and higher ocean swell. In a new study in the journal Nature Communications, colleagues and I tracked that increase around the world over the past four decades. These global data, along with other ocean, satellite and regional seismic studies, show a decadeslong increase in wave energy that coincides with increasing storminess attributed to rising global temperatures.
"'The water's getting hotter, the storms are getting more severe'—but retirees continue to flock to places where climate risk is high"
"Over four decades, Dave Frisina became a local institution as a radio personality in Syracuse, New York. Now 68, he still streams a weekly music program — but he does it over the web from his new home in Florida. In 2021, Frisina and his wife, Jennifer, joined the legion of retirees still flocking to Sunbelt states like Florida, Texas and Arizona. It's as if many older Americans somehow missed the headlines about how the U.S. so far this year has endured a record $23 billion in damage from weather disasters in which climate collapse has played a hand. Over the summer — the hottest on record, globally — high temperature records fell like dominoes across the nation, particularly in the Southwest. But no climate statistics or even real-life brushes with disaster seem to have stanched the flow of retirees and others to the Sunbelt, especially the most vulnerable coastal regions. "The most flood-prone U.S. counties saw 384,000 more people move in than out in 2021 and 2022 — a 103% increase from the prior two years," the real-estate company Redfin RDFN, +2.69% found in a Summer 2023 survey."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.