Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

Wednesday

August 30, 2023 at 2:02AM

Tracking Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center was issuing advisories on Hurricane Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico as it was nearing the Florida coastline. Here is a look a the IR Satellite from PM Tuesady.

Hurricane Idalia from Tuesday Evening (NOAA Satellite/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking the Tropics

This system is expected to drift north into the Gulf of Mexico, while intensifying into a major hurricane before making landfall somewhere in the Big Bend area of Florida, where Hurricane Warnings have been issued. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted along the east coast of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina

Tracking Idalia (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Heavy Rainfall Ahead

Regardless of how strong this storm gets, heavy rain will be one of the main concerns here. Widespread 3" to 6" of rainfall be possible from Florida through the Mid-Atlantic States with some spots possibly seeing as much as 6" to 10", which could could cause flooding.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Gusty Winds Expected

Idalia is expected to reach the Florida coastline as a major hurricane with winds of nearly 120mph. This could certainly cause major damage and widespread power outages along with life-threatening storm surges.

Max Wind Gust Swath (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Life-Threatening Storm Surge

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, the biggest storm surge could reach 8ft. to 12ft across parts of Florida's Big Bend. Tampa could actually see 4ft to 7ft surge as Idalia passes to the north.

Peak Surge Map (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Major Hurricane Franklin

Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin was a major category 4 storm with winds up to 150mph on Monday. Franklin was a very impressive looking storm with a definitive "eye" as seen by the IR satellite loop below.

Hurricane Franklin From PM Saturday (NOAA Satellites/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Flying Through The Eye of Franklin

Believe it or not, pilots and researchers from NOAA actually fly through tropical system, including major hurricanes! Take a look at the video below from a recent flight through Hurricane Franklin... unreal!

Flying Through The Eye of Franklin (NOAA Hurricane Hunters @53rdWRS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Franklin

As of Monday, Franklin was a major hurricane with 145mph sustained winds. This storm is expected to steer north of Bermuda (thankfully), but Tropical Storm headlines have been posted for the Island as rain, gusty winds, storm surge and life-threatening rip currents will be possible.

Tracking Franklin (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Active Weather in the Atlantic

As of Monday, the National Hurricane Center as tracking Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Idalia in the Atlantic basin. There was also another wave near the western tip of Africa that has a moderate chance of development over the next 7 days.

7 Day Atlantic Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Atlantic Basin Climatology

Our recent uptick in the Atlantic tropical activity coincides with climatology, which suggests that things ramp up pretty quickly during the 2nd half of August and into September. This is when the sea surface temperatures are typically the warmest in the Atlantic Basin. Note that the actual peak of the season is on September 10th, which is less than 3 weeks away. With that being said, the next several weeks could be pretty active in the Tropics.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Minnesota State Fair Weather

"It's time once again for the "Great Minnesota Get Together." Weather plays quite a role in the State Fair experience. Who doesn't remember braving the heat with the crowds on one of the busier intersections on a sweltering afternoon? A quick rain burst will send people scurrying for cover, and folks savor balmy days in the 70s with just a bit of a breeze. Below are some State Fair weather facts and notable weather events that have happened in past Minnesota State Fairs. Quick History of the Minnesota State Fair The Minnesota State Fair has been held at its current site since 1885. Before that it was held at a variety of locations including Fort Snelling. There were some years when the Fair was not held because of war, disease, or for logistical reasons. These years are: 1861 (Civil War), 1862 (Civil and Indian War), 1893 (Columbian Exposition), 1945 (fuel shortage because of WWII), and 1946 (outbreak of Polio.) In 2020 the fair was not held due to COVID 19. Beginning in 1975, the fair has a 12-day run each year ending with Labor Day. Thus since 1975, the Fair begins on a Thursday in August. Before 1975, the Fair was held for shorter durations (eleven days from 1972 to 1974, ten days from 1939 to 1971, eight days from 1919 to 1938 and six days from 1885 to 1918). The 2023 Minnesota State Fair runs from August 24-Sepember 4."

Minnesota State Fair on Friday (@DKayserWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hottest Days of 2023 So Far

The hottest days of 2023 (so far) were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. Uffda! Through Sunday, August 27th, there have been (27) 90F days this year and tied for the 13th most number of 90F days in any year. The extended outlook brings us back into the 90s for the Labor day weekend, so we'll continue to add to that tally.

Hottest Day of 2023 So Far (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

5th Hottest Meteorological Summer on Record

It has also been a hot summer with readings running well above average since June 1st and good enough for the 5th hottest Meteorological Summer on record so far (through August 27th). Note that 2021 was the 2nd hottest and 2022 was the 16th hottest. Meteorological Summer ends this Thursday!

5th Hottest Summer on Record at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

9th Driest Meteorological Summer on Record

It has been very dry across much of the region so far this summer with only 5.79" of rain falling at the MSP Airport since June 1st. Interestingly, we're still -6.71" below average this summer. For reference, the driest on record was only 1.73" set in 1894.

9th Driest Summer on Record at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to about mid May, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Drought continues across much of the state with a slight uptick in the Severe and Extreme categories. The greatest increase was in the Severe (D3) category, which increase nearly 11% from last week.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

It is still plenty dry across the state and the extended precipitation forecast doesn't show much in terms of any significant soakings anytime soon. There could be a little here and there over the next 7 days, but not enough to help any of the drought conditions.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, August 30th will be sunny and dry with a high temperature approaching 80F. Dewpoints will be fairly comfortable in the upper 50s during the day as well.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Weather conditions for Minneapolis through the day Wednesday will be very comfortable. Temps will start in the upper 50s in the morning and top out in the upper 70s in the afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Winds generally be out of the southeast throughout the day around 10mph to 15mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Condition For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

Temps on Wednesday will warm into the 70s and 80s across much of the state, which will be a little warmer than average across the western part of the state. Readings will only warm into the 60s near Lake Superior, which will be a little cooler than average.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will remain pretty comfortable through Thursday with readings hovering around 80F. It gets hot this Labor Day Weekend with highs approaching 90F, which will be quite a bit above average for early September. There's even a shot of 100F as we approach Labor Day.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

More Comfortable Dewpoints.

The 5 day dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis looks pretty comfortable midweek with readings falling into the 50s once again. However, it'll get hot and sticky once again as we approach the Holiday weekend.

5 Day Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature forecast for Minneapolis looks decent through Thursday. However, it'll get hot and sticky once again as we approach the weekend and into early next week with a string of 90s developing once again.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Another Hot Week Shaping Up

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will still be pretty close to average through midweek before we warm up into the 90s through the Labor Day Weekend.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions in the Midwest look fairly quiet over the next several days with minimal precipitation chances through next weekend. The big story will be southeast of us, where Idalia will make landfall in Florida as a possible major hurricane midweek.

National Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the nation as we head through the first week of September. The warmest weather will once again be found in the Central US, where temps will remain well above average. The West Coast will be cooler than average into early September.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, much of the nation will be drier and quieter than average. Meanwhile, more active weather will be in place across the Pacific Northwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

September Kicks Off With a Big Heat Dome
By Paul Douglas

The best thing about the weather? It's free. In fact dear reader, check out Paul's Weather Warehouse! We have a sizzling late-summer sale on Heat Domes, Heat Spikes and Wildfire Smoke! There's no charge and this offer is available to absolutely everyone! [ps: for a small charge we can treat you to blue sky and 70s on Labor Day, but an airplane trip will be required].

Considering the Big Bend region of Florida is getting whacked by Category 3+ Idalia I'm OK with a little heat and smoke. Hurricane Idalia will spark flooding from Jacksonville and Hilton Head to Myrtle Beach, North Carolina - fueled in part by 90-degree water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

We get a taste of extreme heat with 90F by Friday, mid-90s Saturday and a chance of upper 90s close to home Sunday and Labor Day; more than 20 degrees above average. Record highs may fall early next week. Thank God for all those refreshing lakes.

1988 saw 44 days of 90+ at MSP. At the rate we're going we'll see 32-36 days above 90F in 2023. Wow.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Comfortable sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. High 79.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: ESE 5-10. Low: 61.

THURSDAY: Sunny and warm, breezy. Winds: S 15-25. High 83.

FRIDAY: Hot sunshine. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 66. High 90.

SATURDAY: Hazy-blue sky, another sizzler. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 70. High: 95.

SUNDAY: Sunny with record heat possible. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 74. High: 98.

MONDAY: Steamy sunshine, lake-worthy. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 75. High: 97.

TUESDAY: More clouds, few T-storms around. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 76. High: 92.

This Day in Weather History

August 30th

1977: Flooding occurs on the southwest side of the Twin Cities, with MSP Airport getting 7.28 inches of rain in 4 1/2 hours.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

August 30th

Average High: 78F (Record: 96F set in 1941)

Average Low: 60F (Record: 45F set in 1935 & 1974)

Record Rainfall: 7.28" set in 1977

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For August 30th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

August 30th

Sunrise: 6:32am

Sunset: 7:54pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 21 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 59 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 16 Minutes

Moon Phase for August 30th at Midnight

0.2 Days After The Full "Blue" Moon

"Aug. 30 at 8:36 p.m. CDT - The second full moon occurring within a calendar month is usually bestowed this title. Although the name suggests that to have two Full Moons in a single month is a rather rare occurrence (happening "just once in a . . . "), it actually occurs once about every three years on average. There is actually a second and more arcane definition of a Blue Moon, apparently conceived by an almanac editor based in Maine back in the 1930s, but we will not get into this here. In addition, the moon will also be at perigee at 12:00 p.m. EDT., at a distance of 221,942 miles (357,181 km) from Earth. Very high tides can be expected from the coincidence of perigee with full moon (referred to as an astronomical spring tide). Finally, a full moon occurring very late in August or very early in September is sometimes bestowed with the title of Fruit Moon or Barley Moon. This will be the case with this second August full moon in 2023."

Moon Phase For August 29th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will be well above average across the Intermountain-West, where readings will be well above average for this time of the year. Folks in the Northwest and the Northeast will be cooler than average for the end of August.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesdasy will be a little unsettled across the Eastern US with showers and storms. Idalia will begin moving into the Southeast and Florida through the day.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Thursday will be very unsettled across the Southeastern US, where Idalia will move through. Widespread damage and significant impacts will be felt through midweek.

National Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the southeastern US as Idalia moves through. Some of the rainfall amounts could approach 10" or more.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"CAN A TRIPLE RAINBOW HAPPEN?"

Many people share a common childhood memory: the delight they felt the moment they made their own rainbow, which on a sunny day can suddenly appear while playing with a hose or a watering can. As kids get older and learn about the color spectrum, such effects of light refracting through water eventually lose their magic. On the other hand, few grown adults can resist the beauty of a naturally occurring rainbow that appears on the horizon on a clear, rain-riddled day. More impressive and rare than a regular rainbow is a double rainbow, when two arches of spectral colors, one inside the other, are visible across the sky. According to weather.com, this unusual event has some predictable elements: for example, the outer rainbow — known to meteorologists as a secondary rainbow — is always dimmer in appearance than the primary one. Another strange detail is that the colors of a secondary rainbow are always inverted: they appear to run from violet to red, instead of red to violet.

"Explained: The 1.5 C climate benchmark"

"After a summer of weather extremes, where does the world stand in its goal to stem rising temps? The summer of 2023 has been a season of weather extremes. In June, uncontrolled wildfires ripped through parts of Canada, sending smoke into the U.S. and setting off air quality alerts in dozens of downwind states. In July, the world set the hottest global temperature on record, which it held for three days in a row, then broke again on day four. From July into August, unrelenting heat blanketed large parts of Europe, Asia, and the U.S., while India faced a torrential monsoon season, and heavy rains flooded regions in the northeastern U.S. And most recently, whipped up by high winds and dry vegetation, a historic wildfire tore through Maui, devastating an entire town."

"2023 Global Heat Wave: July Brought Hottest Three Weeks Observed So Far"

"In the summer of the year 2023, several hot spells of variable length and intensity occurred partly simultaneously in different regions of the northern hemisphere. In their "Untersuchung der globalen Hitzewelle im Jahr 2023" (investigation of the global heat wave in 2023), researchers of the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Task Force Group of KIT's CEDIM analyzed the record temperatures reached and the population's exposure to heat. In some regions, previous all-time record temperatures were exceeded by far, in other areas new daily or monthly records were recorded. In June 2023, global mean ocean surface temperatures were as high as never before. As regards the Earth's surface, including landmass, June 2023 has been the warmest June since 1850. On a global scale, the first three weeks of July 2023 were the hottest three-week period ever. The daily record, a global surface temperature of 17.08 degrees Celsius was reached on July 6, closely followed by July 5 and 7 with 17.07 degrees Celsius each."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

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Todd Nelson

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